Why This Bull Market Could Last Another 15 Years

August 26, 2014 2:12 PM

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Why This Bull Market Could Last Another 15 Years

Is there really another 15 years to the current bull market?  Chris Hyzy of US Trust said just that Monday on CNBC.  The call got a lot of press and needless to say, the very vocal group of bears who have been fighting this bull market for years scoffed at this even having the slightest chance.

He isn’t the first person to say something like this, as fellow Yahoo Finance Contributor Ralph Acamapora said the exact same thing back in May.  In late 2010, I started saying we were now in a new secular bull market.  It was pretty early for that call and I got my fair share of hate for saying it.  Four years later I still feel we’re in a secular bull market.  I have no clue how far it’ll eventually go, but I do think we have many years left.  

One trademark of true bull markets is new all-time highs.  The S&P 500 (SPX) made 45 new all-time highs last year and has added another 30 so far in 2014.  That’s a good thing, don’t be fooled into thinking new highs are bearish.  

Last month, I showed that new all-time highs had returns after new highs pretty much in-line with the at-any-time average returns.  So making new highs isn’t some bearish event like so many claim.  

Now for the good stuff, new highs tend to happen in clusters that can last years.

To keep this very simple, we saw new highs in the ’50s and ’60s, then very few in the ’70s.  Then continued new all-time highs for another two decades, ending with the horrible overall performance of the 2000s.  Now here we are in a fresh new decade and new highs are starting to pop up again.


Take another look at that chart above.  Could we really have another 15 years of this bull market?  At first, it sounds ridiculous to even ask I’ll admit, but once you look at the chart above we can all agree it is at least possible.   

So one last time, could we really have another 15 years of the this bull market?  I have no idea to be honest.  Still, my best advice is be open to it.  It has happened before and very well could happen again.  Don’t be one of the guys using CAPE ratios to stay out or blaming QE for the bull market.  Good luck out there.

Photo thanks to Watcher1999.  

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