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The Latest, Most Adorable Sign of an Economic Rebound

Christina Medici Scolaro
Big Data Download

Who would have thought babies do more than brighten your spirits and enrich people’s lives -- according to Hedgeye Risk Management, those little ones provide a strong indicator for the economy as well.

Hedgeye Risk Management runs a model using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the CDC. The model shows that as women aged 20 to 34 find jobs, more babies are born in the United States. The correlation is on a three-quarter lag, meaning that what’s happening now in employment will affect how many babies are born nine months from now.

Jones said that as women find jobs and secure health insurance, they feel more comfortable financially bringing a baby into the world.

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Also, as one might expect, during the recession, the U.S. saw a “birth deficit.” The country saw the largest drop-off in births in 40 years during the recession as people lost jobs and put off the baby-making. Now, however, the U.S. is seeing a pronounced rebound. U.S. births are back on a more normal trajectory, plus some deferred births from the recession.

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As the size of families increase, so will the demand for housing – yet another stimulus for the growing economy.