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Apple iPhone 5 Will Shatter Sales Record, Send Stock Higher Says Analyst

Kevin Chupka
Executive Producer/Writer

The veil of secrecy has been lifted moving Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5 from rumor to reality. Will the new must-have gadget send Apple shares even higher up in the stratosphere? Breakout welcomed technology guru and principal at GVA Research, David Garrity, to help break down today's announcement.

"I think the stock's in a situation where over the next three to six months it probably outperforms the S&P 500," Garrity says.

What will prompt the continued market success for the Cupertino tech giant? "We're looking at a model here (the iPhone 5) that will probably give us something about 60 million plus in terms of units being shipped and delivered between now and the end of the year," Garrity predicts. He also points out that "coming out a month earlier than the 4S introduction last year means that the September quarter numbers could see some upside."

So what IS the iPhone 5? It is, among other things, a lighter, thinner phone with a wider screen and higher speeds. So who is Apple aiming for with the latest iteration of their phone? "First and foremost you're looking more just to take the existing user base [and] upgrade that," Garrity says.

That's all well and good but what, if any, inroads can be made with what Garrity calls "conquest sales" of iPhones to the Android faithful. He thinks they may be largely unmoved, arguing those customers "want to be in an ecosystem, an Android ecosystem, that's somewhat more open and flexible than an Apple OS ecosystem where obviously once you put the information in you're really locked in. "

Of course it wouldn't be a true Apple event without some talk about what's next. Garrity cites two catalysts on Apple's horizon:

iPad Mini:
"We're also looking at what's gonna be coming out with the iPad - whether we're actually gonna see an iPad Mini coming out within the next month or so, which would be putting it in time for the holiday shopping season, potentially competing against the likes of the Kindle," he says.

China Mobile (CHL):
The other thing that's probably important to consider here, which they weren't really saying anything about now is when do we expect to see any kind of announcement coming with China mobile, obviously opening up a very large base of potential customers."

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