Bonds are going down but not for the reasons you think. At least that's the view of Yves Lamoureux, president of Lamoureux & Co. He was early and right saying the 30-year bond would hit a 2.5% yield, so ignore him at your peril.
Of course, bond bears have been getting smoked for the last 18 months trading on what should happen. Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. credit of 2011 should have taken down bonds and driven yields higher. That is specifically what a downgrade is supposed to do.
But it never happened. Foreign and domestic money continued to pour into U.S. debt regardless of the downgrade and recent warnings from Moody's and Fitch. Lamoureux believes yields are finally, at last, moving higher.
"In the case of the Treasury market it was a beneficiary of the European debt situation," he says in the attached clip, "so we had money moving into U.S. bonds."
This time is different in that he thinks the pressure is growing too strong for there to be any safe haven in debt.
The run into U.S. paper as a function of perceived safety and frustration with stocks was the "once in an lifetime" even Lamoureux was looking for when he made his 2.5% call. Now that the moment has passed, the trade is gone.
None of which is to say bonds go straight lower from here. Lamoureux thinks yields eventually drift to 6%, but not in any hurry. "If you buy and hold your bonds for the next ten years you'll get crushed."