The tension is high as November 6th approaches. The ideological direction of the nation may hang in the balance but according to Jeff Hirsch, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, the market is unlikely to have a big year ahead regardless of the outcome.
"No matter who wins we're in for a tough 2013," says Hirsch in the attached video. His work shows the year after an election as the worst of the Presidential cycle. (Related: Why a Romney Win Would 'Overall Be Better')
Whether that's because of fiscal hangover, less pandering by elected officials or something else entirely, the average market gain the year after an election is 3.8% since 1953, a fraction of what is seen in pre-election years.
As for the near-term, November is better when the incumbent gets kicked out of office and December outperforms when a President gets re-elected. The net impact isn't much for the balance of this year but Obama has a slight edge after that. The data shows negative returns in the post election year for Republicans and gains when Democrats take the White House.
Just some more food for thought as you get ready to close the curtain and make your choice.
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