After losing ten percent in the first quarter, and another 20 percent in the soon-to-be-over second quarter, the temptation to buy gold (GLD) is great. But according to Bill Baruch, market strategist at iiTrader, that would be a big and costly mistake.
"Our target is $1,154 but this thing could really get to the psychological $1,000 level in the longer term," Baruch says in the attached video. "Snake-oil salesmen are saying you have to buy gold right now. That's wrong. You do not need to be in gold."
As he sees it from his post at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the primary reason to own gold - as a hedge against inflation - is gone. In fact, he says, "the fear now is deflation" and notes that the Fed has ''failed to inflate" the economy to its 2% target.
"We're sitting right above 1% (on inflation)," Baruch points out, warning that talk of curtailing the Fed's $85 billion a month in bond purchases is what is going to cause the deflation.
"Right now, we are not the number one easing country (in the world) so that means the U.S. dollar is the place to be," he says, pointing to the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan as "easing at a higher pace than we are right now."
His call is that big institutions will continue to reduce their exposure to gold and that when tapering begins in 2014, it "is really going to press gold down."
As a result, he's avoiding gold in favor of the U.S. dollar and stocks.