Unless you owned defensive stocks, 2012 has been an equal opportunity rally. Tech stocks, financials, cyclical names... just about any asset class that isn't defensive has seen a sharp move higher this year. Both supporting and belying this observation is the price action in gold, typically a safe-haven asset that's risen 10% so far in 2012.
"We did have a bubble in gold, the bubble popped and we're now trying to reflate," says Richard Suttmeir of valuengine.com in the attached clip. He says that the recent upward trend isn't as much a return to gold's past glories but rather a bounce to be sold. For Suttmeier the end of gold's rally is neigh. He puts the monthly resistance level at $1,836, a relatively minor 6% above current levels, and says a return to levels over $1,900 are a thing of the past.
Naturally gold bugs would disagree, pointing to seemingly endless dollar printing by our government and troubles in Europe as reasons gold will never go out of style as a safe haven. In addition, despite gold's extended pause, the barbaric metal long-term uptrend support held beautifully towards the end of last year.
None of which is enough to convince Suttmeier to rethink his position. As he sees it, the dollar is going to continue to move higher, almost despite the best efforts of the Fed as there's simply no where else for global investors to go.
It's the "best house in a lousy neighborhood" theory of currency investing. If Suttmeier is right, a strong dollar will buy investors more gold, holding down the price of the precious metal and other commodities.
We want to know what you think. Is gold even worth thinking about as an investment or just a curiosity left over on your quote screen from a year ago? Tell us in the space below or Tweet me @Jeffmacke