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Market crash ‘omens’ bode well for stocks


Stocks hit another record high on Wednesday but you’d never know it from the headlines. Far from dancing in the streets pundits and young investors are focused on a 130-year old “sell-signal” possibly shaping up based on ancient technical indicators.

It’s the latest in a series of ominous comparisons. Who can forget last year’s repeated “Hindenberg Omen”? Once that theory went up in smoke it was replaced by a 1929 meme.

As if that weren’t bad enough USA Today has kicked off what amounts to a countdown clock until this bull market ends in a replay in the crash of ‘87. There are only 36 days remaining, for those building bomb shelters at home.

Taken as a whole it’s a miracle investor sentiment is only slightly below average as measured by AAII.com. Based on the confluence of omens there should be Molotov cocktails in the air and cop cars being flipped over in the streets. Instead the most loathed rally in the 222-year history of the NYSE continues.

 Jon Najarian of OptionMonster.com says much of the skepticism is being feuled by sour grapes. As Najarian points out in the attached video investors who have missed the rally are reduced to only two strategies: chase the market higher or double-down on fear tactics. If they can’t do one or the other, institutional money is going to see clients walking out the door.

There’s nothing to be done about having missed the bull market so far, but for those living in the now, Najarian still has a price target of 2050 on the S&P500 (^GSPC), a clear triple from the 666 low of March 2009.

“People want to bet on a bursting bubble,” as Dr. J puts it but it’s not going to happen with so many investors on the sideline and global central banks still sitting on stimulus ammo. If you’re looking for a negative catalyst the fundamentals aren’t going to be on your side until the pent up consumer demand left frozen all winter is gone.

There weren’t many major newspapers calling a top in October of 1929. Three days before the crash Irving Fisher, then famous for being “the greatest economist in history,” infamously announced that stocks had reached a permanently high plateau. Even during the crash Fisher assured the public that stocks were simply “shaking out the lunatic fringe.”

When USA Today stops predicting looming catastrophes and starts holding investors’ hands it will be time to get seriously worried.

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