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Oil’s pain will be consumer’s gain by end of summer

Pras Subramanian

As Memorial Day weekend approaches, Americans across the country will pack into their beloved SUVS and plug-in hybrids and drive off into the sunset on various summer adventures.

Typically the start of summer driving season doesn’t just fire up barbecues pulled out of storage, it usually gets gas prices going as well. One man who doesn’t see this trend continuing is crude oil watcher Jeff ‘Killer’ Kilburg of KKM Financial.

Killburg says the recent push higher in oil is all due to uncertainty in Ukraine. “It’s all about this scare, a possible supply interruption, that makes the whole energy space go up.” While AAA is forecasting prices are heading higher for gas at the pump, Kilburg isn’t buying it.

In the short term, however, Kilburg says oil at $100/barrel is here. “By the end of the month, we have such a supply, such a glut we should see oil go back down, but until this this geopolitical situation diffuses… it’s above $100 and it will hit us at the pump.”

One thing in the summers that push prices at the pump higher is the formula used by refiners. “Typically you see when they switch the blends, you see a the most expensive gas, initially around Memorial Day weekend then it weans.”

Ultimately Kilburg predicts once the Ukraine situation eases off, oil will go back to trading as a normal commodity, and the supply glut in the U.S. will depress prices. “I actually think once we get through this Ukraine situation, I think crude can go back down to the lower $90s, upper $80s by the end of the year.”

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