Feeling lost in your quest for fresh money-making opportunities these days? Well, you're not alone. Even a globe-trotting speculator like Doug Casey, whose namesake firm, Casey Research, prides itself on being "intensely curious, focused on facts," says there just aren't many good places to hide anymore.
"Good investment ideas are not thick underfoot these days," says Casey. "The next few years will be marvelous from the point of view of a speculator, but horrible for the average guy." Casey's definition of a speculator is not a gambler or a trader, but rather someone who capitalizes on politically caused distortions in the marketplace, and he's expecting a lot of them. As such, and not surprisingly, Casey loves gold and hates the dollar.
On the former, Casey sees the bull market in gold eventually entering a "mania stage," which he thinks could push it to $5,000 an ounce. Even so, he says the recent run-up to $1,500 is cause for "hesitation." Still, broadly he advises that people "should own a lot of gold."
As for the dollar, and major currencies in general, his commentary is more caustic, as he blasts the long-term washout that looms as a result of "trillions of currency units that all these stupid governments are creating."
Casey openly does not like to link his predictions with timelines. He says in the years to come, the dollar will trade to its intrinsic value (as in -- be worth the paper it's printed on), which "will be quite ugly." This despite his belief that "the EU is going to fall apart and euro will cease to exist" within the next five to 10 years.
And there's more sunshine where that came from.
Casey says "your biggest single risk is political. You must diversify so all your money isn't in the control of one government." He says he's heavily diversified outside of the U.S., and "bought a lot of agricultural land in Argentina." True to his word, Casey now spends most of his time living and investing in South America.
So if you already own gold and you're not moving to South America, what else looks good?
"I am a big believer in cattle," he says. "I recommend building herds, both dairy and beef," because he says it's probably the cheapest major market he can think of. Interestingly, he has no interest in trading cattle futures.
And if you're not quite ready to embrace farming, he has one other suggestion: "I would be short bonds. You can make a killing doing that."
So there you have it. Just when you thought your pessimism could not be eclipsed, Doug Casey comes forth and sets a new benchmark for bearishness. Let the commenting begin! Or write to us at firstname.lastname@example.org.