After a nine-month slump and a 25% haircut, investors who are hungry for a bargain might be tantalized by the chance to buy gold (GLD) for $400 an ounce less than its recent peak in October.
But according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief technical market analyst at Miller Tabak + Co., you might want to wait a bit before dropping that ticket, because his work shows that gold is still vulnerable.
"All the major moving averages are still above [the current] price and declining," he says in the attached video. "Momentum is mediocre at best and, to me, that suggests that there really could be another leg down here."
As much as there have been — and will be — instances of fear gripping the markets and bolstering the case for gold, Krinsky says part of his bearish call is based on the fact that so far any such rallies have quickly faded or proven to be unsustainable. "You still see those very short-term spikes, but they're much smaller than they had been and are immediately followed by a give back."
But as much as gold looks weak here, Krinsky says crude oil (CLX13.NYM) looks very strong at current levels, having gained about 7% so far in June.
"If you look at the trader positioning within both commodities, oil is moving to the upside and a lot of large hedge funds are net long right now," he says, quantifying his comment as "one of the largest net-long positions we've seen in a couple of years."
At the same time, he points out that gold hasn't fallen enough yet to draw the hedge funds back.
"With crude breaking to the upside, the boat looks to be heavily skewed long, while gold is breaking down and traders are very short," Krinsky concludes.
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