The polls suggest President Obama will be re-elected. While there's a legend surrounding the 1980 election when Ronald Reagan overcame a huge poll deficit in September of 1980, the truth says otherwise. The reality is a sitting President polling as highly as Obama is now is all but certain to regain the White House.
Scott Bleier, the founder of Create Capital, visited Breakout to debunk another bit of conventional wisdom. "Obama has been the friendliest President to banks and big oil in history," he states in the attached video. "Wall Street secretly loves Obama."
Bleier doesn't intend to make a political statement. His point is that markets have blasted off under Obama at the hand of "free money" from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed and Executive Branch are supposedly independent of one another, Wall Street believes it. Certainly the Fed's recent decision to launch another round of Quantitative Easing, triggering a quick 2% rally did nothing to belie these suspicions.
"Obama's a shoe-in unless the market crashes two weeks before the election," says Bleier. "This guy's got it locked up."
Easy money, under Obama or Romney, will come back to haunt the economy eventually but not before driving asset prices higher. Investors and corporate America flourish when cash is cheap and stocks are moving up. As a result, for your near term portfolio performance and the general happiness of corporate America, an Obama re-election is a best case scenario.
Given the choice between the Republican's vaguely worded vows of austerity and a continuation of the loose monetary policy "easy money wins every time."