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Why U.S. Markets Are Entangled in the EU Crisis


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Europe isn't getting closer to a solution but rather a dissolution of the entire Eurozone. The deep recessions already crushing southern Europe are inevitably spreading to France and Germany. The purging of elected officials is evidence of the growing anger of citizens having "one size fits all" economic policy thrust upon them. The pace of this unraveling is increasing, as is the uncertainty associated with this unprecedented event.

Socionomic theory studies the connection between societal moods with economic and political developments. According to the folks at Elliott Wave International, represented today by the group's European analyst Brian Whitmer, the economic and political unease in Europe is being driven by the disintegrating mood of the citizenry, not the other way around. Regardless of identifying the tail and the dog, the wagging itself is going to end in tears for markets around the world.

As Whitmer sees it, the current tumult is a more or less a natural reversal of the six decade rally in stocks that ended in the late 1990's. He and his firm "view the market as a barometer of what (they) call social mood." The ebullience peaked with the creation of the Euro, a currency that flies in the face of centuries of European history. In happier days the unification of 17 member nations into a body with one currency but no real centralized authority seemed like a nice idea. Today? Not so much.

Germany's benchmark stock index (^GDAX) is down almost 20% year-to-date and all hope is very nearly lost regarding a neat solution to the developing crisis. Historically, or at least in relatively recent history, the current situation would be a chance to fade the public and buy stocks. But Whitmer scoffs at the notion.

"I want to see persistent bearish sentiment that rivals the kind of optimism, month after month, year after year, that we saw in the late 90's," he says.

For those of us who remember the Pets.com IPO being driven by a sock-puppet, Whitmer's idea is a chilling prospect indeed. We all go down together. Watch the attached video and let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.