Silver prices have slumped to their lowest level since September 2010 and gold prices are down 18% year-to-date leading many market observers to declare that the super-rally in commodities is over.
Jim Rogers, the legendary investor and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, says the commodities bull market continues. He calls the latest slump in prices a correction. “I still don’t see massive new supply coming into the market which will keep prices down,” he tells The Daily Ticker.
Rogers correctly called the commodities bull market that began in 1999 and the housing slump of 2007-2008 well before either occurred.
Despite the decline in precious and industrial metals like copper, not all commodity prices are falling. Oil prices, for example, are actually higher so far this year. WTI crude today is trading at $97.14 a barrel, up 5%. Cotton futures are trading near 11-month highs.
Farmland prices, however, are moderating. The Kansas City Fed reported last week that prices for nonirrigated farmland in its region rose 3.4% in the first quarter—less than half the increase of a year ago. In a separate report, the St. Louis Fed showed a 2.3% decline in first quarter land values compared to the previous quarter.
Rogers has been bullish on farmland and says he’s still optimistic about that market. “Farmland has been extremely exciting for 3 or 4 years now. I hope it’s slowing down…otherwise we won’t have any farm products.”
The slowdown is “only in some parts of America, in Iowa where the farmland got way ahead of itself, “says Rogers. “It hasn’t slowed down in Mississippi.”
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