With the stock market down sharply off its peak and a slew of lousy economic data coming in in recent weeks, there is once again talk of a double-dip recession.
But it's not going to happen, says Professor Adam Lerrick of Carnegie Mellon University. Instead, we're just going to have lousy growth for years.
Because, Professor Lerrick says, the United States does not have an economic policy--and has not had one since Ronald Reagan was President. Instead, the United States has a social policy, one in which the government's goal appears to be to spread the wealth earned by the richest Americans to the rest of the country without promoting private-sector growth in the meantime.
Until the government clarifies what its job is and reduces the uncertainty that is hobbling the economy, Lerrick says, the job market will remain weak and growth will be anemic. Lerrick's "uncertainty" argument is more nuanced than that of other analysts, who blame liberal policies for worrying and confusing the country's business-people, but his outlook for the economy is similarly gloomy.
But at least he doesn't think we're going to have another recession.