It’s that time of year for predictions: how will the stock market perform in 2014, which politicians will be elected, what country will lead global economic growth, etc. The Economist magazine recently unveiled its annual prognostications as well as its track record for 2013. Dan Franklin, editor of the magazine’s “The World in 2014” issue, sat down with The Daily Ticker to discuss what the world may look like next year. First, let’s start with the magazine’s 2013 performance:
The magazine’s editors and writers accurately forecast the direction of the big economies like the U.S., Europe, China, Britain and India. They also correctly anticpated major merger deals, such as the acquisition of Nokia by Microsoft.
There were a few including the failure to foresee a U.S. government shutdown, the staying power of Syrian President Bashar Assad as well as a military coup in Egypt. The magazine also underestimated the impact of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policies.
As for 2014, “it will be a year of economic shifts,” says Franklin. “A lot of the good economic news will come from the West. The emerging world will struggle a little bit compared to how it’s doing in recent years.”
Franklin says American corporations will dominate the business world next year, one of the reasons behind the “renewed momentum” of the West.
Many of the factors that slowed U.S. growth over the past few years are gone: buyers have reduced the glut of vacant homes; home prices are rising steadily; banks are once again eager to make loans; job-cutting by state and local governments have been halted.
Even the partisan gridlock in Congress presents a far smaller risk to growth: Franklin and his team expect Republicans and Democrats to strike a deal on long-term spending for health care and other social programs in exchange for a short-term budget pact.
The most dramatic change from 2013 could be the reduced role of China in the global economy.
“The American economy will contribute more to global growth than the Chinese economy for only the second time in 8 years,” notes Franklin. “The big emerging markets will look less dynamic than they used to.”
How will U.S. monetary policy change next year and what does new leadership at the Federal Reserve mean for investors? Franklin addresses those questions in the video above!
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