Appearing on CNBC's Squawk Box, Ron Baron predicts we'll see the Dow at 30,000 in a decade and 60,000 after. Is he right? Talking Numbers looks at the charts and fundamentals.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on track to its best half-year since 1999. According to billionaire investor Ron Baron, the good times could just be starting. Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning, Baron said:
“If you just invest in the stock market, we think you're going to double your money in ten years, and double it again ten years after that. So, we're thinking of the Dow being 30,000 in in years and 60,000 in twenty years.”
That’s a bold call from a bold investor, but is he right?
We ask CNBC contributors Abigail Doolittle, Technical Strategist at The Seaport Group, and Steve Cortes, Founder of Veracruz TJM, to look at the Dow’s charts and fundamentals.
Doolittle is not as hopeful as Baron. Looking at a 40-year chart, Doolittle says, “It has one word written all over it and that is ‘decline.”
The Dow had a steady uptrend starting in 1982 only to form a volatile range within a “bearish broadening top” in 1997, according to Doolittle. That range, between 7,000 and 15,000, is where she says the market had three “rising wedges”. Two of those wedges were broken to the downside: first in 2000 and again in 2007. The third wedge is currently being tested. Doolittle thinks it will follow the two previous wedges.
Cortes says that while the near-term may be bearish, he believes that a future decline in energy prices will lead to a future growth. The catalyst for cheaper fuel, according to Cortes is expanded energy exploration and increased use of fracking.
“Long-term, I think energy prices for consumers are going to be very, very contained and low,” says Cortes. “That is a megatrend, massive boom for the United States. Because of that, if we look out ten, twenty years for the United States, I can absolutely see a doubling or tripling [of the Dow].”
Who do you think is right? Watch the video above and decide for yourself.