Syria and tapering are two issues pulling gold in opposite directions. Where will it go next? One trade says up.
Gold has two big stories pulling it in opposite directions: Syria and tapering. Investors are now wondering which will win.
The Syria story remains uncertain, which is one of the reasons traders are finding it difficult to assess its impact on the yellow metal. US Secretary of State John Kerry is in Europe making the case for a military strike against the Assad regime by next week should the Syrian government not turn over its chemical weapons.
However, as the Obama Administration finds resistance abroad, the US Congress is also reluctant to give its blessing to intervention in the event of diplomatic failure. But, should a US military strike occur, gold may be the vehicle of choice for some investors to hold at least until the situation comes to a resolve.
The other big factor affecting gold right now is the potential tapering of the Federal Reserve Bank’s $85 billion per month bond-buying program. Known as “quantitative easing” (“QE”), this policy was implemented to lower interest rates and add cash into the monetary system. The addition money was thought by some to eventually lead to massive inflation.
While stock and some commodity prices have gone up over the past couple of years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained below 3% since the start of 2012. With the Fed decreasing its bond buying, the market expects less inflation down the road. Thus the need for gold to hedge against inflation may go down, too.
So, what will matter most to gold and where is it likely to go next?
Looking at the fundamentals is CNBC contributor Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global. On the charts is Talking Numbers contributor Richard Ross, Global Technical Strategist at Auerbach Grayson.
To see where Sanchez and Ross think gold is headed next, watch the video above.