Gold has finally broken above the key $1,300 level, making this the first week in the last four where gold made gains.
One would think tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East would have helped push the yellow metal up more than the 1 percent it gained this week. But George Gero, precious metals strategist at RBC Capital Markets, isn’t surprised gold hasn’t moved more to the upside even with the current geopolitical crises.
“I’m not that surprised,” said Gero, who was one of the first people to trade gold futures contracts four decades ago. “Gold is terribly misunderstood. Gold, essentially, is what you need to maintain purchasing power over the years – and maintain asset protection over the years – of some portion of your portfolio, not for geopolitical events that actually come and go.”
Todd Gordon, founder of TradingAnalysis.com, agrees with Gero. Despite “any kind of geopolitical pressure we’re seeing… the bid in gold is very weak,” he said. “There’s very little volume going on right now in gold. We’re in a long-term kind of consolidation, gold has kind of lost itself.”
Gordon is long gold for the short term by using options contracts. “It is right now an inverse play to the stock market,” he said. “As stocks are falling, gold’s rallying. I think that’s going to reverse.”
Gordon’s short-term target is around $1,367 per ounce. He bases that target off a trend line originating from its August 2013 highs, which he sees as major resistance.
“Short term, I’m long,” he said. “I’ve got kind of call spread on – short an option above –into that resistance. It’s just a short-term play, I think gold sells off as stocks bottom.”
To see the full discussion on gold, with Gero on the fundamentals and Gordon on the technicals, watch the above video.