The fireworks came early for Netflix this year.
Shares of the online streaming giant exploded to all-time highs Tuesday after Goldman Sachs upgraded the company from “neutral” to “buy” and raised its 12-month price target on the stock by more than 50 percent, from $380 per share to $590 per share. Goldman cited Netflix's international growth prospects and ability to grow its profit margins as reasons for the upgrade.
So, should you follow Goldman Sachs into Netflix, which is up 28.5 percent this year?
(Watch: Cramer: Onboard with Netflix)
“It’s a bold call,” said Cowen and Company’s David Seaburg. “To put the growth in perspective, you look at international growth, (Goldman's) assuming 20 percent of international households with broadband are going to subscribe to Netflix by 2017,” said Seaburg, who believes it’s a realistic expectation but an unrealistic time frame.
And according to Seaburg, the stock is priced fairly at current levels. “If you own it, I think you hold onto it. I don’t think you put any more money to work here.”
Based solely on the techincals, Auerbach Grayson’s Richard Ross agrees the stock is a bit overextended.
(Watch: Netflix's valuations stretched?)
“I’ve got real mixed emotions here on Netflix,” he said. “As a technician I like to look at stocks making new highs for potential highs. ‘Strength be get strength’, as they say. But in this case I’ve got some real concerns with the chart and some concerns with the upgrade here as well.”
On a year-to-date chart, Ross pointed out that the stock lost about 30 percent of its value in the first two months of the year, but stressed one important technical pattern: a head-and-shoulders bottom. Ross used that head and shoulders pattern to help project a measured upside to about $460 per share, right around current levels.
Ross’ bottom line, “I smell a little too much euphoria here. I would not chase it. I wouldn’t short it, but I wouldn’t chase it.”