Did we just witness the end of the generational bond rally?
Since the start of the Fed's massive stimulus programs, known as QE, the S&P has surged more than 130 percent, while the yield on the U.S. 10-year is nearly 40 percent lower. Which left some traders to believe low rates could be the new norm.
But now some are calling for higher rates after a surprisingly hawkish statement from the Fed, in which the Fed Chair Janet Yellen cited a "substantial improvement" in the labor market, sent the yield on the 10-year hit a three-week high.
“The Fed was certainly more hawkish than people thought,” said Ira Jersey, head of U.S. interest rate strategy for Credit Suisse.
“We do think that we are very close to a bottom in ten year yield and we think they are poised to back up a little bit, but probably not as much as people think,” said Jersey, who also added his 2015 year-end target on the 10-year yield is 3 percent.
The chart of the 10-year yield also paints a stark warning for the tempted to buy bonds on the dip. According to Oppenehimer’s Ari Wald, the technical pattern suggests the 10-year yield will remain range-bound through the remainder of 2014. “We see the upper end of that range to be at about 2.4, 2.5 percent.
Wald added bullish sentiment in the bond has risen throughout the year as yields have come down.
“From a contrarian standpoint we think the October low does mark a meaningful turning point in the bond market. Here’s the big but, we still have U.S. rates trading higher than European markets with much weaker economies and the trend is still lower,” he said. “We think the [10-year] needs to base further for the next 12 months, but there is a floor at 2 percent.”