The world is awash in terrible conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East. But you wouldn't know it from the market's reaction.
Despite turmoil in Gaza, Libya, and Ukraine, the S&P 500 continues to make new records. And each instance of global turmoil has provided investors with an opportunity to buy stocks.
Yet Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, is wary of the markets at these levels regardless of the news.
“Technical analysis teaches us that it’s not the news itself which is important but the reaction to the news,” said Ross, a “Talking Numbers” contributor. “This bullish price action against the backdrop of tragic news is actually bullish for the markets.”
Despite this, Ross is negative on the market because of the technicals of benchmark S&P 500 index. “I see some technical symmetry here,” he said. The index was 25 percent above its 150-week moving average back in 2011 only to fall down to that level. Today it is nearly 28 percent above the 150-day moving average, currently near 1,550.
“I think that’s left us uniquely vulnerable,” Ross said. “Yes, we have steamrolled over some of these really negative headlines, to put it mildly. But I don’t think that good fortune continues in terms of the S&P 500. I would trim here if I were fortunate enough to have some profits. “
Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global, is also wary of the markets and she believes the main culprit is the Fed.
“What the Fed has done is create a situation that now is creating distortions in the market,” said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “What we have right now is exuberance in the market. I wouldn’t say that it’s extreme yet but it is going to get there.”
So, while the markets may recover from current geopolitical unrest, Sanchez said, stocks have another problem at the moment. “I think they’re very expensive here,” she said. “The underlying fundamentals simply don’t match the optimism and the sentiment that we continue to see in the market. And that is what makes this vulnerable.”
“The overall level of the market is simply too rich,” Sanchez added. “We need to see some of this come off.”
To see the full discussion on the S&P 500, with Ross on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the above video.