Is it too soon to call it a bullion breakdown?
Gold suffered from its worst two-day stretch since May on Tuesday, as the selloff in the not-so-precious metal continued to pick up steam on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony, and closed below $1,300 per ounce for the first time in a month.
Gold has traded in a sideways $200 range for much of the past year, hitting $1,400 per ounce on the high-end, and $1,200 per ounce on the low-end. So, how do you trade it now?
“Over the last 12 months the S&P 500 is up over 17 percent, gold not so much,” said Auerbach Grayson’s Richard Ross, who joked that the one-year price chart of gold is nearly impossible to read. “Really, what we are looking at is a graveyard of failed technical patterns and formations. I would highlight this as an example of how not to trade.”
Ross instead urged investors to look to a longer-term chart of bullion for some technical perspective.
“When we look at that long-term chart that takes us back to the beginning back in 2002, you see that 150-week moving average, we hold it for 11 years. In 2013, we break below that key support at $1,500 [per ounce] and the 150-week [moving average]. And settle into that sideways trading range.”
And according to Ross, all that glitters is not always gold. “I’m looking at a downside target of $1,000 [per ounce],” he said. “I would not be a buyer, in fact I’d be a seller—even a short seller here.”
(Watch: The Yellen dichotomy)
Unfortunately for the gold bugs of the world, Washington Crossing Advisor’s Chad Morganlander agreed with Ross that there is more pain to come.
“I think you are going to have a 3 to 7 percent downdraft in gold in the coming months,” he said. “I would take the money and run if you are long gold at this inflection point.”
But Morganlander does see a glimmer of hope long-term. “If you have an asset allocation portfolio and you are looking five to seven years out, a small, moderate amount of gold in one’s portfolio could be helpful as a non-diversified asset class.”