The IPO market is very hot right now. But, is it a sign the stock market in general is too hot?
It’s not just GoPro, the company that went public on Thursday and popped up nearly 30 percent on its first trading day. There’s Alibaba, which has filed what could be the biggest initial public offering in history. [Yahoo!, which is a partner with CNBC on “Talking Numbers,”owns 22.6 percent of Alibaba.]
Since the start of the year, the average IPO has gained 14 percent on its first trading day, according to data compiled by Renaissance Capital.
This week alone, 11 companies have gone public, making it the busiest IPO week since November 2007. And, June is on its way to having the most IPO activity since 2000. We all know what happened after that.
Should investors be worried?
“This deal flow seems to be at the beginning of its run,” said Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global. “There could actually be some more to come before we actually see a precipitous decline.”
Yet, Sanchez is bearish on stocks. “The markets are overvalued at this point,” she said. “The fundamentals really don’t support the prices where they are. Sales have been really tepid, and what we’ve seen in terms of earnings has partially been because of stock buy-backs and M&A activity.”
All of this activity has nothing to do with the economy’s weak recovery, said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “Fundamentally, this is yet another sign that we are at the top of the market,” she added.
However, Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., is positive on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index, which had incredible runs during the last two IPO booms.
“I think you stick with it,” Waldsaid. “We’re still bullish on select areas of the market, one of which is big cap tech. We think the Nasdaq can do well because it has a lot of exposure to big cap tech.”
Wald’s chart shows the Nadaq Composite index testing resistance at 4,375, which is near its highs this past March. Whether or not the index can break above that resistance depends on the spread between the index’s 50-day and 200-day moving average.
“After narrowing over the last few months, this spread is just starting to widen again,” Wald said. “Momentum is starting to accelerate higher [and] we’ve had this sideways range that’s allowed overbought conditions to recede. Now momentum is in a position to accelerate higher. I think the Nasdaq can make new highs.”
To see the full discussion on the IPO market and the Nasdaq Composite index, with Sanchez on the fundamentals and Wald on the technicals, watch the above video.