Are the technicals and the fundamentals setting gold up for a grim picture?
The yellow metal has once again broken below the $1,300 mark and its 50-day moving average. Now it’s getting near its 200-day moving average, currently at $1,287.33 per ounce.
This comes as the China Gold Association reported that demand for gold in that country for the first half of year dropped 19 percent compared with the same time in 2013. Since last year, China is the largest retail buyer of gold in the world.
Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer & Co., is watching two technical levels besides the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in gold. Though he has a hunch it will move higher, he is still neutral on bullion as he thinks trading in the metal will “remain sloppy.”
“We’re looking at $1,360 resistance on the upside and we’re looking at $1,260 support on the downside,” Wald said. “Until then, I don’t think gold’s going to have a lot of momentum to it. In fact we’ve been recommending it as the short side of a long-short pair with the gold miners. We think gold mine stocks do a lot better than gold metal here.”
Steve Cortes, founder of Veracruz TJM, said gold has been boring but is setting up for a move higher.
“Fundamentally, I think the stage is actually finally set for a rally,” Cortes said. “We’re starting to see some upticks in inflation after years of disinflationary pressure.”
Cortes thinks moves up by industrial metals like copper and aluminum are indicating higher prices ahead. “That tells me that finally there’s some pricing power broadly in the commodity world that should be bullish for gold,” he said. “I think [the gold ETF] GLD can do better here and I like the miners as well.”
To see the full discussion on gold, with Wald on the technicals and Cortes on the fundamentals, watch the above video.