Historically, September is a lousy month for stock, but should averages be discarded with the market near record highs?
As statisticians like to point out, the month of September is, on average, the worst for the S&P 500 index. Since 1950, the index has been down an average of about 0.5 percent according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. Then again, the index was also up more than 2 percent each of the last two Septembers.
Will this be an average September for stocks? Jason Rotman, president of Lido Isle Advisors, doesn’t believe so.
“While these seasonal factors may have some historical validity, I think you can almost throw them out right now,” Rotmansaid. Markets are currently affected by global central bank policies, he added.
Rotman’s view of the charts gives him a target of 2,055 on the S&P 500. He sees a two supporting trendlines, one beginning in the fall of 2013 and the other beginning in 2014.
“The market is well above these two support lines,” Rotman said. “So for the bears out there that are calling for a correction, I would say, ‘not so much.’”
As long as the index remains above the two supporting trend lines, a third line – this one a resistance line connecting the two major highs of 2014 – could come into play. “If you extend that trend line out to December 31 of this year, you have a 2,055 target,” Rotman said. “I’m going to stick with that.”
That target is too high for Gina Sanchez, founder of Chantico Global. “I don’t necessarily agree that we could get to 2,055 by the end of the year,” she said.
Though she sees some positive economic signs, “getting up to 2,055 assumes that next year is absolutely smooth sailing and we’re totally out of the woods,” said Sanchez, a CNBC contributor. “I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”
Instead, Sanchez predicts a bumpy ride ahead. “We’re probably more due for a correction before we actually see a resumption of a trend that’s a little slower than 2,055 would suggest. “
To see the full discussion on the S&P 500, with Rotman on the technicals and Sanchez on the fundamentals, watch the above video.