Based on Friday’s close and the price action, the direction of the gold market is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1309.60.
Commodity-linked Australian Dollar traders are likely to react to the direction of crude oil as well as Treasury yields.
Based on Friday’s close at .6916, the direction of the NZD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term pivot at .6914.
Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the USD/JPY is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 109.137.
Short-term, the AUD/USD and NZD/USD could get a boost if Treasury yields continue to drop and the U.S. reinstates the meeting with North Korea, originally scheduled for June 12. However, gains could be limited by another steep sell-off in crude oil.
The inside move on Friday may have been an indication that changes may be taking place over the North Korean situation behind the scenes.
Three major events drove the two-sided price action in the U.S. Dollar last week including renewed geopolitical concerns over a potential trade war between the United States and China, renewed tensions over North Korea and dovish Fed minutes. However, the dollar index was supported by a weaker Euro.
Gold prices inched lower on Friday, but still managed to close above the psychological $1300 level while holding on to its gains for the week.
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Gold markets initially fell during the week but found enough support at the crucial trend line to turn around and break above the $1300 level. Ultimately, this market should continue to go much higher, and I think that a return to the $1350 level makes quite a bit of sense.
The US dollar fell during the week against the Japanese yen, as the ¥111 level has offered significant resistance. We have turned around rather drastically, testing the ¥109 level. When you look at these past two candles, you can make out a shooting star when you combine them. Otherwise, the other thing you should notice is that we have had a couple of shooting stars before then as well.
The US dollar initially fell during the week, reaching down to the vital 1.2750 level before bouncing significantly. By the time the week closed out, we did of forming a very strong looking candle, and it appears that we are threatening the 1.30 level being left in the rearview mirror yet again.
The New Zealand dollar initially rally during the week, reaching towards the 0.70 level before failing again. We ended up forming a bit of shooting star, and at the bottom of a consolidation range that is a pretty negative sign.
The British pound fell during the week, slicing through and uptrend line against the greenback, showing signs of extreme negativity now. I think that the market will ultimately find sellers again, and that we could turn things around to see a complete change in trend.
The British pound broke down below the major uptrend line on the weekly chart over the past week, showing signs of weakness. Because of this, I think that the market is in a lot of trouble, and we should continue to see sellers jump into this market.
The EUR/USD pair initially try to rally during the week but found enough resistance above the turnaround of form yet another negative candle. Because of this, it looks like we are going to wipe out the entirety of the move to the upside, and I think it’s only a matter of time before that happens.
The Euro has tried to rally during the week against the British pound but has turned around and fell rather significantly. By doing so, the weekly candle looks as if it is going to form a shooting star, and that of course is a very negative sign.
The US dollar continues to show signs of stability against the Australian dollar during the week, as the 0.75 level has offered support several times. Last couple of weeks have featured “higher lows”, and even an attempt at a significant “higher high.” Ultimately though, I think there is a lot of resistance above, so I think what we are looking at is a return the consolidation.
Gold markets went back and forth during the trading session on Friday, reaching around the $1305 level, an area that of course has caused a lot of attention. I believe that there is plenty of support underneath this level though, so it could be an interesting market to trade.
The US dollar initially rallied against the Japanese yen on Friday but fell again to reach towards the ¥109 level. The market looks as if it is trying to find some type of bottom as of late, and I certainly favoring the upside on the longer-term, but it appears that we are not quite ready to go higher.
The US dollar rallied significantly against the Canadian dollar on Friday, breaking well above the 1.2925 handle. That being said, there is a major resistance barrier above, so be aware of this.
The New Zealand dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the 0.6925 level before rolling over again to test the bottom of the range that we have been in over the last couple of days.