Gold is likely to remain under pressure as long as Treasury yields continue to rise. Furthermore, a weaker U.S. Dollar is not expected to influence gold prices too much until all of the long-hedge positions in the greenback have been liquidated.
It is a big week ahead, with corporate earnings, trade talks, Brexit and economic data in focus. There’s also the IFM meetings and the EU Summit.
Optimism that U.K. and European leaders can reach an agreed deal for Britain to leave the European Union pushed the British pound higher for a second day.
The Mexican peso, vulnerable to trade risks due to its reliance on U.S. economy, jumped 0.8%, while the Chilean and the Colombian pesos rallied 1%, getting an extra boost from a rally in metal and oil prices. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, ended a second day of talks in Washington on Friday and Bloomberg News reported the two sides had reached a partial agreement that would lay the groundwork for a broader deal. The surge in risk appetite and a rally in the pound on rising hopes of a Brexit deal pressured the dollar.
Based on the early price action, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the resistance cluster at .6809 to .6811.
Based on the early price action and the current price at .6342, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the downtrending Gann angle at .6346.
Gold markets fell during the week as the United States and China sat down to talk. This of course is very influential on the risk appetite of traders around the world, so paying attention to how that turns out it is going to tell you exactly how this market moves.
Gold markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Friday, but then fell rather hard to test the major uptrend line. We are in a huge wedge, and if we were to break down below this trendline it’s likely that the market will probably go looking towards the $1450 level almost immediately. Below there, things get quite a bit more difficult.
The US dollar has rallied significant during the week, reaching towards the ¥108.50 level. At this point, there is a significant amount of resistance just waiting to happen, so if it were to be broken it’s very likely that the market could go looking towards the ¥110 level. However, if we break down, the ¥107 level should be supportive.
The British pound has skyrocketed this week as it appears that there are some signs of progress in Brexit negotiations. That being said, I’m not overly impressed quite yet, because I know that it’s only a matter of time before some negative headline comes out. If the pair can survive that negative headline, then we could be looking at something rather big.
The British pound skyrocketed during the week on trade hopes involving the Brexit situation. As we are starting to see signs of progress in those negotiations. However, we have not seen a true decision made, so a lot of this could be a simple short covering.
The Euro rallied significantly during the week, as we have seen the lot of positive headlines come out involving the Brexit. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to be influenced by a lot of external factors, and of course the occasional rumor/headline.
The Australian dollar initially fell for the week but has rallied significantly as Hope has reentered the market for some type of agreement between the United States and China.
The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, crashing into the ¥108.50 level. The 200 day EMA is just above, and it’s very likely that the market could turn right back around, based upon basic technical analysis.
The British pound rallied rather significantly again during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to have headlines coming out that perhaps some real progress is finally being made in the Brexit scenario. At this point though, it’s a bit rich to jump in at this level.
The British pound rocketed higher during the trading session on Friday, as the hoped-for Brexit being worked out is reaching a fever pitch. Having said that, the market is still fragile in the sense that this is probably more short covering than anything else, and could turn around at the drop of a dime. If there is some type of negative headline out there, it’s likely that the pair will fall apart.
The Euro has rallied significantly during the trading session on Friday, breaking above the 50 day EMA before finding sellers again. Ultimately, the market is going to continue to be very choppy but it looks as if a bit of hope entering the Brexit situation could send money back into the Euro.
The Australian dollar rallied nicely during the trading session on Friday, as optimism continues to spread about the US/China trade talks. That being said, nothing has actually happened so it will be interesting to see whether or not there is some type of news that moves this market one way or the other.
Prices could surge further later in the session if the two countries could agree to at least a partial agreement on issues such as currency and agriculture buying. This would leave more controversial issues such as protections against Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property, for later negotiations.
Positive expectations related to the US/China trades negotiations on October 10th prompted a moderately strong upside move in the US major indexes and the stock market. Additionally, the precious metals fell in correlation to the upside move in the US stock market and presented another opportunity for skilled technical traders to look for entries below $1500 in Gold and below $17.75 in Silver.
The Mexican peso, vulnerable to trade risks due to its reliance on U.S. economy, jumped 0.7% to 19.31 per dollar, while the Chilean and the Colombian pesos rallied about 0.8%, getting extra boost from a rally in metal and oil prices. The rally came as U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S.-China trade talks were going well as the second day of top-level negotiations got under way. Investors are hoping the two sides will agree to a deal that could avert further retaliatory measures, while expectations of a last-minute Brexit deal between the European Union and Britain as well as approval of a North American trade deal all added to the optimism.
The midcap FTSE 250 rose 3.5%, its best single-day percentage gain in more than three years, as European leaders indicated there was progress toward reaching an agreed deal with the U.K. on leaving the European Union. The European Union says it has agreed with the United Kingdom to "intensify" Brexit negotiations in a belated attempt to reach a divorce deal ahead of Oct. 31. A number of FTSE 250 components sported double-digit gains, including bank CYBG , building materials distributor Grafton Group and home improvement retailer Travis Perkins . The FTSE 100 however saw much smaller gains, of just 0.7%, because many of those components record revenue in dollars.
Investing,com – Gold sunk beneath its bullish $1,500 perch as investors embraced risk and dumped safe havens on Friday. The selling was prompted by speculation the United States and China were on the verge of a trade deal, after more than a year of wrangling and hundreds of billions of dollars in tit-for-tat tariffs.
The USD/JPY is going to continue to more higher and could even accelerate to the upside if buyers can take out the recent top at 108.478. This could create the upside momentum needed to challenge the August 1 top at 109.317. A breakout will be triggered by the announcement of any positive news from the trade talks.