The confirmation of the closing price reversal bottom is potentially bullish. Typically, this chart pattern leads to a 2 to 3 day counter-trend rally. Its first upside target is usually 50% to 61.8% of the last leg down. This makes 1.1083 to 1.1104, our first objective.
Speculators raised their bullish bets on the U.S. dollar in the latest week to the largest position in four weeks, according to calculations by Reuters and Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the dollar's net long position, derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars, was $15.70 billion in the week to Nov. 12. In a wider measure of dollar positioning that includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Russian ruble, the U.S. dollar posted a net short position valued at $14.323 billion, up from $12.219 billion a week earlier.
USD/JPY has been steadily decreasing in recent days, as the bulls had trouble overcoming the orange resistance zone. The pair has ended its losing streak with today’s rise, however. Does it mark the end of its decline, or is there more to come?
In a key policy shift, the ECB has recently introduced tiered system of interest rates. This news isn’t of interest only to the banks keeping their reserves at the ECB. In today’s article, you’ll learn about the new instrument of monetary policy, and find out what it implies for the gold market.
Gold markets went back and forth during the week, testing a crucial level underneath at the $1450 level. At this point, the market then bounced to show signs of life again.
The gold markets have initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday but have also bounced from the lows. At this point, it looks as if gold is trying to build up a little bit of a basin decide whether or not it can continue to go higher on the longer-term charts.
The US dollar fell during a large part of the week, but then turned around to show signs of life towards the end as we continue to press up against a major resistance barrier.
The British pound has rallied a bit during the week, reaching towards the top of the flag that is currently being built. It should be noted that we are just above the 50 week moving average, which is a representation of support.
The British pound has remained rather resilient during the week, as we continue to hang around the ¥140 level. At this point, it looks as if the market is trying to build up the necessary momentum to finally go higher.
The Euro initially fell during the week but then turned around to rally as the market simply went nowhere. It looks as if we are trying to find a bit of support at the 1.10 level which would make sense as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure.
The Australian dollar has fallen during most of the week but has also seen a nice bounce from previous areas of interest, suggesting that they are trying to build up enough momentum to turn this thing around.
The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday the in the week on a positive note, as Larry Kudlow has suggested that the US and China are making progress on “Phase 1” of the trade deal.
The British pound is very little during the trading session on Friday, as the market is struggling with the 1.29 handle. We are currently trying to build a bullish flag, but at this point most of what we have is noise.
The British pound continues to go back and forth against Japanese and, as we reached above the ¥140 level. At this point in time, the market looks as if it is ready to continue the same action that we have seen for several days.
The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the 50 day EMA. At this point, the market looks as if it is trying to recover from the 1.10 level, but quite frankly this is just a large round number so you can’t read too much into it.
The Australian dollar has bounced a bit during the trading session on Friday, perhaps in a correction to the overreaction of the Australian employment figures. While we did break down due to those employment figures, the reality is that this pair is about US/China, and not much more.
Traders are reacting strongly to Kudlow’s comments and gold is being pressured accordingly. It seems President Trump can say all he wants, but the market tends to listen more intently to what Kudlow has to say.
The British and Canadian currencies are almost unchanged on Friday. We could see some movement with the release of U.S. retail sales at 13:30 GMT.
The USD/JPY is trading higher on Friday on the back of positive developments over a potential trade deal, however, gains are being limited by lingering worries.
GBP/USD has continued higher after consolidating in a bull flag for most of the week. However, strong resistance is nearby from a declining trendline that originates from the October high.
The EUR/USD made a bullish bounce after breaking the round psychological 1.10 support level. The resistance line (red) and wave 4 (orange) pattern, however, make a bearish bounce likely.