Based on the price action the last three sessions and the close at .6687, the direction of the NZD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6687.
Mortgage rates were on the rise again to pin back refinance applications and overall loan sizes. Purchasing activity hit a 9-year high.
In addition to the strengthening U.S. Dollar, gold was also pushed to near its lowest level since the end of December last week as economic data from China improved enough to relax concerns over a global economic slowdown. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures looked tired all week, which could be the first sign of a top-heavy market. Natural gas futures finished the week sharply lower after a government storage report showed a slightly larger than expected build.
The Greenback found support in a week where the Aussie and Kiwi Dollar hit red and economic data out of the Eurozone and China diverged.
Given the new CPI data, New Zealand economists are now predicting the Reserve Bank will cut its official cash rate from its present record low at 1.75 percent to 1.5 percent in May. Although traders are pricing in an RBA rate cut for later in the year, the employment report may have bought the central bank a little time. The AUD/USD price action suggests that traders may have increased bets the RBA will not rush to ease rates even though the broader economy has seemingly lost momentum.
USD/JPY sustained near the 112 levels, staying apathetic over BoJ’s bond purchase cuts. The EUR/USD showed less reaction to the greenback weakness today. USD/RUB marks day’s high near 64.05 levels.
Gold markets fell rather hard during the week, crashing into what I believe is a significant support level. It will be interesting to watch what happens next, but clearly we have seen a complete change in attitude over the last several weeks.
The US dollar has gone back and forth against the Japanese yen, reaching at the ¥112 level, which of course has been massive resistance. That being said, it looks as if we have work to do.
The British pound fell during the week, crashing into the 1.30 level which of course has been supportive in the past. The market has been grinding back and forth, and at this point there are several levels we should be watching.
The British pound fell during the week, reaching down towards the ¥145 level. At this point, the market is trying to find a bit of a springboard underneath, but we may have a little further to go.
The Euro fell during the week, reaching down towards the 1.12 level yet again. Now having said that it’s likely that we have a big fight on our hands just below current trading.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the week but also gave back the gains to roll over and form a bit of a shooting star. We are starting to see resistance at an area where you would expect it, so it makes sense that we get a bit of a pullback.
Gold markets have been sitting on major support for the last couple of trading days but were closed for Good Friday. At this point, we are at a major inflection point and could be setting up for a big move.
The US dollar continues to go sideways overall against the Japanese yen, as we head into the Easter holiday. At this point, the lack of liquidity would have made the candlestick on Friday less than impressive, but quite frankly if you look at the rest of the week, it was much the same.
The British pound has bounced slightly during a very illiquid Friday session, as most people were away celebrating the holiday.
With the lack of liquidity on Friday, the British pound didn’t do much against the Japanese yen. However, we are at a very interesting level that we should be paying attention to.
The Euro bounced slightly during trading on Friday as low-volume would have made this an unreliable market. We are currently trading around a major support level though, so a bounce would have course made quite a bit of sense.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the day on Friday but gave back the gains to continue the negativity that we had seen on Thursday. However, there is plenty of support underneath so the question is whether or not this will be value?
The U.S. dollar is holding near a two-week high on Friday, on what has been a quiet session for currencies with most other major U.S. and global exchanges closed for the observance of Good Friday.
Based on Friday’s limited price action, trader reaction to the short-term Fibonacci level at 1.1238 is likely to determine the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. Essentially, the EUR/USD could strengthen over 1.1254 and weaken under 1.1238. However, the extremely light volume will lead to limited gains and limited losses. Furthermore, buying strength and selling weakness is not advised today.
Overall, gold futures are fairly priced, given the strengthening U.S. Dollar, steady Treasury yields and a stock market that sits about 1 percent below its all-time highs.
The loonie bulls rose slightly amid rising crude prices. The USD/CAD stood well above the significant 200-days SMA developing a bullish outlook.
The Dollar index has risen to a 5-month highs after disappointing EU PMI reports. GBPUSD just fell below 1.30 and now is trying to stay above its MA(200). EURUSD is eyeing key support at 1.1200. AUDUSD failed with growth.