U.K. consumer prices slowed to 1.7% year-over-year growth in August from 2.1% in July, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. Economists polled by FactSet expected a 1.9% rise. Core CPI slowed to 1.5% from 1.9%. The ONS said the decline came from principally games, toys and hobbies, and cultural services, clothing and sea fares. The pound was trading at $1.2452, down from $1.2501 on Tuesday.
With economic data on the lighter side, the market focus will be on Brexit chatter and the FOMC. For the Loonie, inflation figures will also influence.
Gold futures are holding support around $1500 ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. Our intermediate cycle work supports a correction into October or November. A breakdown below $1490 in gold futures would signal the next leg lower in precious metals.
The currency markets have been quiet on Tuesday, with the pound, Canadian dollar and Mexican peso showing limited movement. However, the Fed meeting on Wednesday could trigger some movement. As well, investors will be keeping a close eye on CPI releases in Canada and the U.K.
Gold markets continued to go back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to drift around just above the $1500 level. That being the case, the market looks very likely to try to find support underneath.
The US dollar had rallied slightly during the trading session on Tuesday as we have reached relatively high levels against the Japanese yen. As we continue to bounce around just above the ¥108 level, it doesn’t take much imagination to think that perhaps traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve.
The British pound broke down a bit early during the trading session on Tuesday but continues to find stubborn support just below. By doing so, it looks as if the market is going to hang about the 1.25 region, trying to decide whether it’s too expensive or not.
The British pound did very little during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to hang about where we gapped down to on Monday. With that in mind, it is somewhat impressive but at the end of the day we are overbought.
The Euro bounced a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as the 1.10 EUR level has offered a bit of psychological support. At this point, it looks as if the market will be waiting for the Federal Reserve to give it some directionality.
The Australian dollar finally rolled over a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, after forming several shooting stars over the last week or so. Because of this, it looks as if the Aussie could be facing renewed pressure.
Investing.com - Gold prices moved modestly higher Tuesday as oil prices fell and Saudi Arabia said production of crude would hit 11 million barrels by the end of the month.
Based on the early price action and the current price at $1511.40, the direction of the December Comex gold futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $1504.40.
Based on the early price action and the current price at 1.1020, the direction of the EUR/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 1.1019.
Markets react relatively sluggishly to the events of the beginning of the week. Oil remains at elevated levels, climbing13% since the beginning of the week.
Investing.com - The Canadian dollar was weaker against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after soft manufacturing data and falling oil prices erased gains from the prior session.
Investing.com – Wall Street ticked lower on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected industrial production and manufacturing output figures put another dent in hopes for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, whose regular policy meeting kicks off later.
The recent sell-off from multi-year highs indicates that gold investors have cut the chances of a U.S. recession, the current sideways price action indicates investors are searching for a new catalyst. The 25-basis point rate cut is priced in. Traders are also feeling more optimistic over U.S.-China trade relations.
Investing.com -- U.S. industrial production and manufacturing output both rose by more than expected in August, bucking the trend of a global slowdown this year against the backdrop of the U.S.-China trade war.
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose 21.6 points to a -22.5 reading in September. Economists polled by FactSet had forecast a reading of -37.9. "The outlook remains negative. However, the rather strong fears that financial experts had in the previous month regarding a further intensification of the trade conflict between the USA and China did not come true. And there is still hope that a no deal Brexit can be avoided. In addition, the European Central Bank is attempting to reduce the economic risks in the eurozone by further easing its monetary policy," said ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach.