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The S&P 500 is trying to top 4100, and the odds favor that happening by the end of January.

The S&P 500 is trying to top 4100, and the odds favor that happening by the end of January.

The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been volatile on an intraday basis, but net gains and losses have been small. Meanwhile, SPX is toying with the downtrend line that defines this bear market as well as with its declining 200-day moving average. On one day this week, the entire range of SPX was above its 200-day moving average, for the first time since last March.