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October Should Be Full of Thrills and Chills

JP Gravitt

The Nasdaq (QQQ) is off its highs, but its valuation is still very stretched.  The Composite Index is trading at 22.7 times NTM earnings – very close to two recent peaks including the one in January.  Historically, the Index does well in October, logging a gain of .9% on average over the last ten years.  So which will win out?  Too expensive?  Wants to make new highs?  Or seasonally strong? The SPX (SPY) is off its highs as well, but without a particularly stretched valuation.  It has moved back up to 17.3 times NTM – off its recent high of 19 times back in January.  It, too, historically moves up .9% in October.