U.S. Markets open in 7 hrs 19 mins

Ed Yardeni: That flawless predictor of recession and a bear market is wrong this time

Market Watch
Ed Yardeni: That flawless predictor of recession and a bear market is wrong this time

The yield curve is commonly measured as the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield and the federal-funds rate (Fig. 1). This spread has narrowed significantly since the start of this year, raising fears of an imminent recession and a bear market in stocks (Fig. 2). That's because in