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Lockheed reported mixed Q1 earnings as its F-35 program saw a decline in sales, while the defense giant raised its 2021 views.
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
(Bloomberg) -- Investors aren’t yet abandoning the view that inflation pressures will pass, even after the sticker-shock of the U.S. consumer prices report sent tremors across a broad range of assets.Market gauges of inflation expectations pulled back from initial spikes following the data, which showed the biggest monthly increase in core CPI since 1982. U.S. Treasury long-end yields have pulled back well shy of their year-to-date peaks. And U.S. equity indexes snapped three straight days of losses Thursday.This moderation in market moves should reassure policy makers, who maintain that the acceleration in prices is temporary, due largely to supply bottlenecks as producers struggle to catch up with rebounding demand after the pandemic forced so much global activity to shut down.“It is not a question of whether inflation will normalize but when,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “The pre-pandemic secular trends like globalization, technological efficiencies, demographics should push inflation lower, but how long these distortions continue to push inflation higher is unclear.”Getting their call right on inflation is make or break for investors. Rising costs of living erode the value of their already low-yielding assets over time, and could force central banks to raise interest rates sooner than they’ve led markets to believe.The run-up in prices of real assets, from commodities to housing, highlights the need to have sturdy inflation hedges in place, according to Thomas Poullaouec, head of multi-asset solutions for the Asia-Pacific region at T. Rowe Price.“What they’re telling us is that there are different signs to suggest that higher inflation for longer than the market is pricing is a risk, and we definitely shouldn’t underestimate it,” he said.Poullaouec this year shifted to favor value stocks -- such as financials, industrials and materials and some consumer-related sectors -- over growth assets for the first time in a decade. He sees the economic recovery spurring this rotation, which he says is only half-complete.In fixed income, he is leaning into short-term inflation-linked bonds and bank loans, or even cash, to steer clear of the sort of long-dated, low-yield assets that are most vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.Longer-term measures still don’t suggest price pressures getting out of hand. The rate on the five-year, five-year forward swap contract for CPI is still around 2.5%. Adjusted for the typical gap between CPI and the Fed’s preferred measure -- personal consumption expenditures -- that means longer-run inflation is seen running only modestly above the 2% target despite April’s extraordinary surge in price gains.Even the bearish spike in equities bets -- reflected in the Cboe put-to-call ratio that tracks the volume of options tied to everything from single stocks to indexes -- may be a contrarian signal, according to Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.It was likely affected by a dropoff in call purchases among retail traders, he said, noting that the S&P 500 has posted a median two-week return of around 3% following the 10 highest put-call readings over the past 12 years.Credit Traders Bet on Central Banks Keeping Nerve Amid InflationYet rates markets aren’t ignoring inflation risks, which is underscored by the past month’s rise in breakeven rates, a market gauge of the inflation outlook derived from Treasury yields. The five-year rate, which is more influenced by the recent rebound in commodity prices, touched its highest level since 2005 before paring the move.There are some lingering doubts that the Fed will be as tolerant of rising inflation as it has promised.Eurodollars contracts are priced for roughly one 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of next year, and at least three by the end of 2023. The central bank’s latest guidance, from March, suggests policy makers see no increases over that whole period.(Updates prices throughout. An earlier version of this story corrected the job title in the sixth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Savills and Cineworld shareholders revolt over executive pay. Backlashes at estate agent and cinema chain over reward packages handed to bosses during Covid crisis
(Bloomberg) -- Discover what’s driving the global economy and what it means for policy makers, businesses, investors and you with The New Economy Daily. Sign up here.Christopher Waller on Thursday became the latest Federal Reserve governor to try and dampen expectations for central bank action to curb rising prices that he sees as “temporary.”Waller, the third governor to speak this week, said that while inflation above the Fed’s 2% goal may last through 2022, it’s unlikely to be sustained. The comments echo those by Lael Brainard on Tuesday and Vice Chair Richard Clarida on Wednesday as Americans vex over rising prices. Several regional Fed presidents have delivered a similar message, including Richmond’s Thomas Barkin earlier on Thursday.“Despite the unexpectedly high CPI inflation report yesterday, the factors putting upward pressure on inflation are temporary, and an accommodative monetary policy continues to have an important role to play in supporting the recovery,” Waller told a virtual event hosted by the Global Interdependence Center. “We will not overreact to temporary overshoots of inflation.”Fed officials want to drive home the message that inflation spikes are transitory to counter criticism their ultra-easy monetary policy is making matters worse, as concern mounts on both Wall Street and Main Street. A report Wednesday showed consumer prices rose in April by the most since 2009. Prices paid to U.S. producers also increased by more than forecast last month.Officials will need to see several more months of economic data -- including the May and June labor-market figures -- before being able to fully judge the strength of the recovery, Waller said. That suggests it would be premature to discuss scaling back the Fed’s massive bond-purchase program at its June 15-16 meeting, in his view. The June employment report is released July 2.“The May and June jobs report may reveal that April was an outlier, but we need to see that first before we start thinking about adjusting our policy stance,” Waller said, referring to the weaker-than-expected employment data last month.Waller listed six things contributing to higher inflation readings: Base effects, or the comparison of prices this year to last year’s pandemic-depressed readings, higher energy costs, fiscal stimulus, spending of accumulated savings, supply bottlenecks and increased demand for workers, which is driving up wages.These will pressure price growth to rise above the Fed’s 2% goal this year and next year, Waller said, but inflation will return to target after that. He said inflation could reach 2.25% to 2.5% in 2021 and 2022, though sustained monthly surges to 4% would be a concern.The median Fed forecast calls for prices to rise to 2.4% this year as the economy reopens and pandemic concerns recede amid widening vaccine distribution. Policy makers see inflation falling back to their 2% goal next year.The Fed is backing its forecast to justify ultra-easy monetary policy that projects interest rates near zero through 2023, plus a vow to maintain asset purchases at $120 billion a month until it sees “substantial further progress” on employment and inflation.Taper TalkBut price increases have some investors betting that the Fed will need to scale back its bond buying sooner rather than later. Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said it’s too early to start talking about tapering.St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard, speaking separately on Thursday, said “it’s too early to talk about taper because the pandemic is still going on.”Fed communication over asset purchases is risky. Former New York Fed chief William Dudley, recalling the taper tantrum of 2013 when financial markets were roiled by unexpected news the central bank was thinking of scaling back bond purchases, warned that it risks a re-run.“Sometime, probably later this year, the Fed is going to have to start to hint that we’re now moving away from maximum monetary policy stimulus. It’ll be very interesting to see how financial markets react,” he told the Council on Foreign Relations Thursday. “If that reaction is severe enough, that could actually affect the trajectory of monetary policy.” Dudley is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist.The economy has shown signs of a strengthening recovery in recent months, but some data have disappointed. Employers added 266,000 jobs in April, far short of the nearly 1 million increase expected by economists, data on Friday showed. Fed officials have said they are looking for multiple months of strong data when evaluating the trajectory of the recovery.‘Outcome Based’“We have said our policy actions are outcome-based, which means we need to see more data confirming the economy has made substantial further progress before we adjust our policy stance, because sometimes the data does not conform to expectations, as we saw last Friday,” Waller said.Waller said that several measures of employment are still depressed, namely the unemployment rates for Black and Hispanic workers, and the percentage of the population that is employed. But other indicators are back to normal: Job openings and the quits rate.“The economy is ripping, it is going gangbusters,” Waller said. “But we need to remember that it is coming out of a deep hole, and we are just getting back to where we were pre-pandemic.”(Updates with Bullard in seventh paragraph from bottom.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Cereal giant General Mills Inc. continued its push into what it calls the “humanization of pets” with a $1.2 billion deal to buy a division from Tyson Foods Inc. that sells treats under brands like Nudges and Top Chews.The division, started in 2011, tallied more than $240 million in revenue over the past 12 months through April 3, Tyson said Friday in a statement. That represented less than 1% of Tyson’s $43.2 billion in annual sales. The deal is expected to be completed by the end of its fiscal year in September.For General Mills, the maker of Cheerios cereal and Progresso soup, the acquisition comes after an $8 billion purchase of Blue Buffalo pet food brand in 2018 that got it started in the category. Its pet food division grew 12% last quarter to $436 million, topping overall growth. The unit accounts for about 10% of total revenue.“Pet food is a high-growth category, fueled by the humanization of pets, a trend that has only increased during the pandemic,” Bethany Quam, president of the General Mills pet segment, said in a separate statement.The acquisition will be funded by cash and includes an estimated tax benefit of $225 million, General Mills said.Shares of both companies were little changed at 9:37 a.m. in New York.(Updates shares in final paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Chile’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate at a record low and said borrowing costs would stay at that level as long as needed for the economic recovery to strengthen.The bank board, led by its President Mario Marcel, kept the overnight rate at 0.5% on Thursday. In an accompanying statement, policy makers wrote that economic prospects have improved.“The convergence of inflation to the target over the policy horizon still requires the monetary stimulus to be highly expansionary,” policy makers wrote. They added that the key rate “will be kept at its minimum of 0.5% for as long as it is deemed necessary for the recovery of the economy to take hold,” while dropping a previous reference to a time frame of several quarters.“That change is more hawkish, without a doubt,” said Sergio Godoy, chief economist at STF Capital. “While it’s not clear if they will raise rates this year, it’s now more probable that it will happen.”Chile’s central bank is keeping its stimulus in place even amid forecasts of stronger 2021 growth, driven by an effective vaccine roll-out, consumer demand backed by a third round of pension fund withdrawals and higher prices for copper, which is the country’s top export. On the other hand, headwinds include high unemployment and a slower pick-up in sectors including services.What Bloomberg Economics Says“The central bank is more constructive about the economic outlook and still confident that inflation will remain in line with the target. Together with forward guidance the outlook supports expectations for the central bank to hold the benchmark interest rate in the short term and start slowly increasing it early next year.”--Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist3% TargetPrivate sector economists raised their growth estimate for this year to 6.2%, according to the central bank’s most recent survey published this week. They also see year-end inflation of 3.3%, above the 3% target.Read more: Latin American Central Bankers Stung by Food Inflation JumpIn their statement, policy makers wrote both headline and core inflation have continued to hover around target. Recent prices have been driven by food and gasoline, and board members noted “there has been continued high demand together with production and supply difficulties in several goods.”Rising commodity prices and increasing inflationary pressures have led other emerging markets to raise borrowing costs. Brazil has increased its key rate twice this year and has signaled more increases are ahead.Policy makers are also on hold as Chile enters what many expect to be a period of fraught national politics. On May 15-16, citizens will vote for members of the body that will write a new constitution, as well as governors, mayors and city council members. The result are likely to shape the upcoming presidential elections scheduled to take place in November.Since the central bank’s last rate decision in March, the government has eased some mobility restrictions, including parts of the capital, Santiago. More than 7 million Chileans have already received two doses of vaccines, out of a total population of over 18 million.(Re-casts story, adds economist quotes in 4th and 6th paragraphs)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Crypto adoption has been healthy in Argentina, with citizens seeking alternative ways of storing wealth amid the country’s economic woes.
Anyone with a stock account can now make a savvy, albeit risky, bet on GBTC pricing disparities that were previously exclusive to big players.
USA TODAY answers the most asked questions regarding the Colonial Pipeline cyber attack and what states are struggling to keep gas stations stocked.
(Bloomberg) -- A crack in a bridge over the Mississippi River has stranded more than 700 barges, cutting off the biggest route for U.S. agricultural exports when the critical waterway is at its busiest.The route is shut near Memphis while the Tennessee Department of Transportation inspects a large crack in a highway bridge spanning the river, according to the U.S. Coast Guard. A queue has expanded to 47 vessels and 771 barges, with 430 of those heading north and the rest going south, Petty Officer Carlos Galarza of the Coast Guard’s 8th District said Thursday afternoon by email.The Mississippi River is the main artery for U.S. crop exports, with covered barges full of grain and soy floating to terminals along the Gulf of Mexico, while crude oil as well as imported steel also travel through sections of the waterway. Any sustained outage would disrupt shipments out of the Gulf. Corn futures tumbled by the most allowed under CME Group rules partly on speculation that exports would back up.“The river is the jugular for the export market in the Midwest for both corn and beans,” said Colin Hulse, a senior risk management consultant at StoneX in Kansas City. “The length of the blockage is important. If they cannot quickly get movement, then it is a big deal. If it slows or restricts movement for a longer period it can be a big deal as well.”The stoppage along the Mississippi River is the latest calamity to upend the commodities world in recent weeks. Back in March, the Suez Canal was blocked by a giant container ship that got stuck sideways in the vital waterway for almost a week, paralyzing global shipping. And late last week, a cyberattack brought down the largest fuel pipeline in the U.S. for five days, leading to widespread gasoline shortages from Florida to Virginia.A lengthy halt on the Mississippi River could further roil crop markets, where soybeans and corn futures have hit multiyear highs amid adverse weather in Latin America and a buying spree from China. Corn futures fell Thursday by the exchange limit of 40 cents, or 5.6%, to $6.7475 a bushel in Chicago.As a workaround, traders could in theory also send some supplies on trains and divert to ports along the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Few grain and soy buyers were bidding for barges north of the river closure amid uncertainty on when vessel traffic would resume.The crack halting vehicle and waterway traffic is in the truss of the Interstate 40 Hernando DeSoto Bridge, which was found during a routine inspection, according to a Tuesday statement from the Tennessee Department of Transportation.“The timeline is still undetermined” for the waterway reopening, department spokeswoman Nichole Lawrence said Thursday morning by email.The Army Corp of Engineers could figure out a way to keep automotive traffic closed in order for water traffic to resume under the bridge, according to CRU Group analyst Josh Spoores. It may cause bottlenecks, but most consumers already used to waiting months for supplies to ship are probably fine with some added delays, he said.The New Orleans Port Region moved 47% of waterborne agricultural exports in 2017, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The majority of these exports were bulk grains and bulk grain products, such as corn, soybeans, animal feed and rice. The region also supports a significant amount of edible oil exports, such as soybean and corn oils and even attracted 13% of U.S. waterborne frozen poultry exports in 2017.Some traders speculated that, based on past experience, the river might be partially opened for restricted movements while repairs are being done.“My sense is that it is not a big deal for river traffic as it will be a short-term disruption,” said Stephen Nicholson, a senior analyst for grains and oilseeds at Rabobank. “The good news is most of fertilizer has already come up river and soybean exports are at their low point. However, corn exports continue at a strong pace, so we may see a slight delay in corn barges reaching” New Orleans.It may be difficult for exporters to shift much volume to rail, as the capacity to unload trains outside of the New Orleans area is limited, according to Curt Strubhar, vice chairman and risk management consultant at Advance Trading Inc.“There aren’t many rail unloaders South of the issue,” he said, adding that New Orleans “port elevators aren’t equipped to handle a sharply higher share of rail unloads either.”Of agricultural supplies that floated on barges north of Memphis, about 84% was corn and about 13% was soybeans, according to Mike Steenhoek, executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition, citing USDA data. Overall shipments of corn and soy during the week ended May 8 were 18% higher than a year ago.Agricultural co-operative Growmark’s St. Louis port, which sends corn and soybeans south to New Orleans for export mostly to China and receives fertilizers, will likely close Friday, according to Matt Lurkins, executive director of the firm’s grain division.“Freight was already tight,” Lurkins said in a phone interview. “Then this kind of sent us over the edge.”If the pause drags on, he said, Growmark could send more grain to processors rather than loading it on barges for export.Small volumes of crude and partly refined oil are shipped by barge on the river as well. In February, 2.85 million barrels moved from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast via barge and tanker, according to government data.Imported steel on barges will be delayed as long as traffic is halted. About 25% of imported steel travels through at least a section of the Mississippi River, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Cicero Machado, though he said newly arriving foreign steel to ports in New Orleans or Mobile, Alabama can be diverted onto rail cars or trucks.The river also is a major artery for steel shipments within the U.S. and delays could become an issue for automakers in the South that depend on high-strength steels produced in the Midwest, he said.“At this stage the big question is: is this going to last?” Machado said. “The issue is not actually in the river, it’s in a bridge over the river -- so perhaps they’re going to find a way to manage the traffic there.”(Adds Coast Guard update in second paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Shares of Plug Power Inc. surged Friday, after they hydrogen and fuel cell systems company completed its restatement, removing a "shroud of uncertainty" that has been weighing heavily on the stock the past couple months.
The Tesla CEO sent the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies plummeting. But he may be aiming to turn crypto-mining green in ways that benefit Tesla.
(Bloomberg) -- Stock sales are reaping a windfall for the world’s richest shareholders.Corporate insiders including Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos and Google co-founder Sergey Brin have ramped up stock sales recently, cashing in on a 14-month long bull market that’s helped boost fortunes to the tune of trillions.U.S. public company insiders offloaded shares worth $24.4 billion this year through the first week of May, with about half sold through trading plans, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s almost as much as the $30 billion total they disposed of in the second half of 2020.Large shareholders frequently sell stock in planned intervals, often through pre-arranged trading programs. Yet the prolonged rally in equities markets has made the value of these disposals, whether planned or opportunistic, strikingly high.There are multiple reasons an investor of any size might be motivated to sell. After the pandemic-defying rally, valuations are increasingly under pressure from rising inflation. Investors are wary the post-Covid recovery could prompt tightening measures from the Federal Reserve. And President Joe Biden’s proposed tax hikes -- including a near doubling of the capital gains rate -- have created uncertainty.Bezos, EllisonWhatever the reason, the sales are flooding the market with yet more liquidity, the consequences of which will ripple through philanthropy, the art market, real estate and other niches.Bezos has sold $6.7 billion worth of Amazon shares this year. While a relative pittance for the world’s richest person, it’s more than two-thirds the value of shares he sold in 2020. Larry Ellison unloaded 7 million Oracle shares in the past week for total proceeds of $552.3 million. Charles Schwab has sold $192 million worth of shares of his eponymous brokerage this year.Brin, who has signaled that he intends to sell as many as 250,000 Alphabet Inc. shares, has disposed of $163 million worth of stock in recent days, his first sales in more than four years, filings show.Mark Zuckerberg and his charitable foundation, the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, meanwhile, accelerated their sales of Facebook stock in the fall. Zuckerberg or his charity has divested shares at a near-daily clip since November, for a cumulative total exceeding $1.87 billion.The surging markets have exacerbated the concentration risk of the single-stock-dominated fortunes typical of many tech billionaires, said Thorne Perkin, president of Papamarkou Wellner Asset Management.“From a portfolio-management perspective, it makes sense to spread it around,” he said.Covid EconomyAlso among the biggest sellers are some noteworthy beneficiaries of the Covid economy. Zoom Video Communications founder Eric Yuan and used-car retailer Carvana Co.’s Ernest Garcia II have together received more than $1.75 billion from stock sales since March 2020, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. George Kurtz, chief executive officer of cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, has sold shares worth at least $250 million over that period.Zoom founder Yuan -- the poster child, in many ways, for the coronavirus economy -- has stepped up his sales this year as the firm’s share price slumped. In 2020, he typically offloaded about 140,000 shares a month through a trading plan, which generated more than $350 million over the course of the year.Since March, he’s sold almost 200,000 shares a month on average, yielding him about $185 million. He also donated more than a third of his stake in the San Jose-based company as part of “typical estate planning practices,” according to a spokesman. Some of the cash from his share sales fund donations to unspecified “humanitarian causes.”(Updates with Charles Schwab’s sales in seventh paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
The IRS sent out COVID-19 relief checks to nearly 1 million more Americans in the ninth batch of payments made under Biden's American Rescue Plan.
Gold is 0.5% higher this morning, as it is trading closer to the recent local highs. What about the other precious metals?
In a further sign of "institutional DeFi" momentum, the regulated custodian is adding 1INCH, BNT, CRV, REN and SUSHI.
The Walt Disney Co. blew away earnings expectations with a Thursday report, but shares still fell in late trading as the pandemic-fueled growth of its streaming services slowed down.
With his cult following, Tesla boss Elon Musk has amassed considerable power to move markets with his musings, but murky rules make it difficult for regulators to rein him in. The celebrity CEO, who boasts more than 54 million Twitter followers and has a devoted constituency on Reddit, has whipsawed the cryptocurrency market and sent some stocks soaring this year with a series of tweets and business announcements. A Musk tweet on Wednesday that Tesla would no longer accept payments in bitcoin sent the cryptocurrency tumbling 17%, roiling bitcoin futures and dragging down the broader cryptocurrency market.
Now that the IRS knows what you earned last year, you may be eligible for more support.