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Falling Deutsche Bank shares reignite ‘black swan’ worries

Just when stock-market bulls thought it was safe to go back in the water after Italy’s political crisis stirred a bout of global turmoil, some wary investors and market watchers are ringing alarm bells over Deutsche Bank. “To this observer (who has consistently warned about Deutsche Bank being the next Black Swan and the imbalances in the European banking system (particularly in Italy)), the risks of a possible negative multiplier effect on other European financial intermediaries and on the region’s economic prospects is profoundly real,” wrote hedge-fund manager Doug Kass in an email to clients Thursday. As popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book, “The Black Swan,” such events, also known as “tail risks,” are events that are rare and unexpected but carry an extreme impact.