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The midterm elections could send the Dow tumbling this year, history shows

Fred Imbert

Since 1913, the Dow has fallen an average of 20.4 percent from the highs reached the year after a presidential election to the lows carved out in a midterm election year, historical data show. A 20.4 percent decline from the Dow's 2017 high would bring it to 19,801, about 25 percent below the all-time high reached on Jan. 26 and about 16 percent below the Dow's current level. It has been a tough year for the Dow Jones industrial average thus far as the 30-stock index struggles for gains.