UPDATE 3-U.S. natgas jumps 8% as LNG exports rise, some wells shut due to cold

(Adds latest prices) Dec 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% to a two-week high on Thursday in a volatile week of trade on a bigger than expected storage draw, an increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and a drop in output as extreme cold from North Dakota to Texas caused oil and gas wells to freeze. Prices spiked despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand in late December. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 9, exceeding the 45-bcf decline analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decrease of 83 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 93 bcf. Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 3.412 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 0.4% below the five-year average of 3.427 tcf for this time of year. Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its LNG export plant in Texas. After several delays, the company has said it was on track to restart the plant by the end of the year. Many analysts, however, have said they do not expect Freeport to return until the first quarter of 2023 because the company still has a lot of work to do to satisfy federal regulators before the plant is ready to restart. Once Freeport returns, demand for gas will rise. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG. Freeport shut on June 8 due to an explosion caused by inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired to review the incident and suggest action. A couple of vessels - Prism Diversity and Prism Courage - have been waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport since at least early November. There are also several other ships sailing toward the plant, including Elisa Larus, which is expected to arrive in late December, Point Fortin and Prism Agility (early January) and Wilforce (late January). Despite the Freeport shutdown, the amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants hit 13.0 bcfd on Thursday, the most since June 4 - four days before Freeport shut. That is because the nation's six other big export plants were operating near full capacity. In a volatile week of trade, front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 54.0 cents, or 8.4%, to settle at $6.970 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since Nov. 29. So far this week, gas prices have jumped over 5% on Monday and Tuesday and dropped over 7% on Wednesday. Gas futures were up about 84% so far this year as much higher global prices feed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine. Gas was trading at $42 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $33 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 99.6 bcfd so far in December, up from a monthly record of 99.5 bcfd in November. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop about 3.4 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary two-month low of 97.2 bcfd on Thursday as freezing weather blankets parts of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, causing well freeze-offs. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 9 Dec 2 Dec 9 average (Actual) (Actual) Dec 9 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -50 -21 -83 -93 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,412 3,462 3,430 3,427 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -0.4% -1.6% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 6.47 6.43 3.86 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 41.79 41.25 37.67 16.04 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 33.39 33.35 37.84 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 514 58 326 390 416 U.S. GFS CDDs 1 2 13 5 4 U.S. GFS TDDs 515 520 339 395 420 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 99.7 99.5 100.0 95.7 89.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.2 9.2 10.0 8.8 8.9 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Total U.S. Supply 107.9 108.7 110.0 104.5 99.0 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.4 5.0 5.4 5.5 5.0 U.S. LNG Exports 11.7 12.5 12.8 11.9 6.9 U.S. Commercial 13.5 14.9 19.9 12.6 14.6 U.S. Residential 21.8 24.8 34.6 20.3 24.6 U.S. Power Plant 31.5 30.7 33.9 27.5 27.3 U.S. Industrial 24.1 24.4 26.8 23.5 24.9 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.6 2.7 3.3 2.7 2.5 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 97.6 102.7 123.6 91.6 98.9 Total U.S. Demand 117.9 123.8 145.3 112.7 114.0 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Dec 16 Dec 9 Dec 2 Nov 25 Nov 18 Wind 10 9 15 9 9 Solar 1 2 2 2 3 Hydro 6 6 6 6 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 38 39 35 39 41 Coal 21 20 19 20 18 Nuclear 21 21 21 20 20 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 6.54 7.20 Transco Z6 New York 7.96 11.50 PG&E Citygate 23.22 48.33 Dominion South 5.31 5.61 Chicago Citygate 5.72 6.01 Algonquin Citygate 10.11 20.96 SoCal Citygate 26.21 50.15 Waha Hub 4.20 3.68 AECO 4.93 5.04 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day Prior Day New England 106.00 186.75 PJM West 80.75 90.00 Ercot North 52.50 50.25 Mid C 325.00 474.50 Palo Verde 269.50 400.00 SP-15 271.00 410.75 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York Editing by Nick Zieminski, Matthew Lewis and David Gregorio)