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UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas jump 9% to 13-yr high on rising air conditioning use

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(Adds latest prices, quote) June 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 9% to a 13-year high on Monday on forecasts for hotter weather and higher demand than previously expected, a decline in output, rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and record power demand in Texas. "The front-month contract is racing higher ... following signs of stumbling dry gas production readings and intensifying heat forecasts for mid-to-late June," analysts at EBW Analytics said in a report. Power demand in Texas, meanwhile, is set to break the all-time record this week, far ahead of the hottest days of summer, testing the resilience of the state's power grid after issues earlier this year and last year's days-long blackout during a deep freeze. Front-month gas futures for July delivery rose 79.9 cents, or 9.4%, to settle at $9.322 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since August 2008. That was the contract's biggest daily percentage gain since mid February. U.S. gas futures were up about 151% so far this year as much higher prices in Europe and Asia keep demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports strong, especially since Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine stoked fears that Moscow might cut gas supplies to Europe. Gas was trading around $26 per mmBtu in Europe and $24 in Asia. In addition, traders said U.S. futures have soared in recent months due to low U.S. gas stockpiles - about 15% below normal for this time of year - and high U.S. coal prices, which make it uneconomical for electric companies to switch from gas to coal for power generation. TOP PRODUCER U.S. futures lag far behind global prices because the United States is the world's top producer with all the gas it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints inhibit additional LNG exports. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 94.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from 95.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 96.1 bcfd in December 2021. With the coming of hotter summer weather, Refinitiv projected that average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 87.1 bcfd this week to 90.0 bcfd next week to keep more air conditioners humming. The forecasts for this week was higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Friday. The average amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants rose to 12.8 bcfd so far in June from 12.5 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record of 12.9 bcfd in March. The United States can turn about 13.6 bcfd of gas into LNG. The United States, which will not be able to produce much more LNG anytime soon, has worked with allies to divert exports from elsewhere to Europe to help European Union countries and others break dependence on Russian gas. Russia kept pipeline exports to Europe at around 6.8 bcfd on Sunday and Saturday on the three mainlines into Germany: North Stream 1 (Russia-Germany), Yamal (Russia-Belarus-Poland-Germany) and the Russia-Ukraine-Slovakia-Czech Republic-Germany route. That compares with an average of 11.6 bcfd in June 2021. Gas stockpiles in Northwest Europe - Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands - were about 9% below the five-year (2017-2021) average for this time of year, and down from 39% below the five-year norm in mid-March, according to Refinitiv. Storage was currently about 46% of full capacity. That is healthier than U.S. inventories, which were around 15% below their five-year norm. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jun 3 May 27 Jun 3 average (Forecast) (Actual) Jun 3 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +96 +90 +98 +100 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 1,998 1,902 2,397 2,339 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -14.6% -15.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 8.98 8.52 3.27 3.73 2.89 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 26.44 26.23 10.27 16.04 7.49 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 24.02 24.02 11.58 18.00 8.95 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 8 12 5 15 18 U.S. GFS CDDs 186 166 182 150 144 U.S. GFS TDDs 194 178 187 165 162 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 95.5 94.7 95.0 93.1 84.6 U.S. Imports from Canada 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.8 7.7 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 102.9 102.2 102.4 99.9 92.4 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.2 2.2 U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.7 5.1 U.S. LNG Exports 12.8 12.7 12.5 9.2 4.3 U.S. Commercial 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 U.S. Residential 4.1 3.7 3.6 3.8 4.3 U.S. Power Plant 28.2 30.1 33.1 36.1 32.8 U.S. Industrial 20.7 20.7 20.9 20.6 20.9 U.S. Plant Fuel 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total U.S. Consumption 64.2 65.7 68.7 71.5 69.3 Total U.S. Demand 85.7 87.1 90.0 89.6 80.9 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Jun 10 Jun 3 May 27 May 20 May 13 Wind 8 12 12 12 15 Solar 6 4 4 4 4 Hydro 8 7 7 7 7 Other 2 2 2 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 39 36 37 37 34 Coal 21 19 20 20 18 Nuclear 21 19 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub 8.34 8.89 Transco Z6 New York 7.26 7.51 PG&E Citygate 9.13 9.93 Dominion South 7.17 7.65 Chicago Citygate 7.86 8.42 Algonquin Citygate 7.97 8.37 SoCal Citygate 8.70 9.05 Waha Hub 7.83 8.20 AECO 6.17 6.45 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) Hub Current Day New England 68.25 87.75 PJM West 70.25 85.25 Ercot North 62.75 78.00 Mid C 35.25 45.38 Palo Verde 43.00 63.00 SP-15 43.25 63.25 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter and Chizu Nomiyama)