Is 1st Source (SRCE) a Great Stock for Value Investors?

Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. After all, who wouldn’t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value?

One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. Let’s put 1st Source Corporation SRCE stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks:

PE Ratio

A key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio, or PE for short. This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock, and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.

On this front, 1st Source has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 20, as you can see in the chart below:

This level actually compares pretty favorably with the market at large, as the PE for the S&P 500 stands at about 21.3. If we focus on the long-term PE trend, 1st Source’s current PE level puts it above its midpoint over the past five years.

However, the stock’s PE also compares unfavorably with the Zacks Banks - Midwest industry’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 17.7. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively overvalued right now, compared to its peers.

We should also point out that 1st Source has a forward PE ratio (price relative to this year’s earnings) of just 19.4, so it is fair to say that a slightly more value-oriented path may be ahead for 1st Source stock in the near term too.

P/CF Ratio

An often overlooked ratio that can still be a great indicator of value is the price/cash flow metric. This ratio doesn’t take amortization and depreciation into account, so can give a more accurate picture of the financial health in a business. This is a preferred metric to some valuation investors because cash flows are (a) generally less prone to manipulation by the company’s management, and (b) are less affected by variation in accounting policies between different companies.

The ratio is generally applied to find out whether a company’s stock is overpriced or underpriced with reference to its cash flows generation potential compared with its competitors. However, it is not commonly used for cross-industry comparison, as the average price to cash flow ratio varies from industry to industry.

In this case, 1st Source’s P/CF ratio of 12.8 is lower than the industry average of 19.1, which indicates that the stock is undervalued in this respect.

Broad Value Outlook

In aggregate, 1st Source currently has a Value Score of B, putting it into the top 40% of all stocks we cover from this look. This makes 1st Source a solid choice for value investors, and some of its other key metrics make this pretty clear too.

For example, the PEG ratio for 1st Source is just 1.9, a level that is lower than the industry average of 2.2. The PEG ratio is a modified PE ratio that takes into account the stock’s earnings growth rate. Clearly, SRCE is a solid choice on the value front from multiple angles.

What About the Stock Overall?

Though 1st Source might be a good choice for value investors, there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name. In particular, it is worth noting that the company has a Growth Score of D and a Momentum Score of F. This gives SRCE a Zacks VGM score — or its overarching fundamental grade — of F. (You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores here >>)

Meanwhile, the company’s recent earnings estimates have been pretty discouraging. The current quarter has seen one estimate to go higher in the past sixty days compared to one lower, while the full year estimate has seen one up and one down in the same time period.

This has had just a small impact on the consensus estimate though as the current quarter consensus estimate has fallen by 3% in the past two months, while the full year estimate has inched lower by 0.4%. You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below:

1st Source Corporation Price and Consensus

1st Source Corporation Price and Consensus | 1st Source Corporation Quote

Despite this bearish trend, the stock has Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and that is why we are looking for better performance from the company in the near term.

Bottom Line

1st Source is an inspired choice for value investors, as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front. However, with a sluggish industry rank (Bottom 37% out of more than 250 industries), it is hard to get too excited about this company overall. In fact, over the past one year, the industry has clearly underperformed the broader market, as you can see below:

So, value investors might want to wait for estimates and analyst sentiment to turn around in this name first, but once that happens, this stock could be a compelling pick.

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