It's high time we check in on two commodity stocks that have struggled mightily the last 12 months. In fact, aluminum concern Alcoa Corp (NYSE:AA) and energy name Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc (NASDAQ:CRZO) have landed on Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of stocks with a -50% year-over-year return.
At last check, Alcoa stock was down 2.3% to trade at $24.25 today. Breakouts in March and April were stymied by the shares' 100-day moving average, and AA is dangerously close to yesterday's two-and-a-half year low of $23.85.
Despite the equity's struggles, analyst sentiment remains overtly optimistic. Exactly seven out of the eight brokerages in coverage rate AA a "buy" or better, with zero "sells" on the books. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $35.69 is a 46.4% premium to its current perch.
Options look to be an ideal vehicle to bet on AA at the moment, with the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 36% ranking in the 10th percentile of its annual range. This indicates short-term options are currently pricing in relatively low volatility expectations -- a boon to potential premium buyers.
Looking at Carrizo, the stock was down 3% to trade at $12.53 at last check. While the shares have reclaimed their 50-day moving average this week, they are still down 52% year-over-year. For most of 2019, CRZO has traded in a tight range, with the $14 level looming overhead, the area of its 2018 lows.
Analysts are also keeping the faith in the oil stock, with 11 out of 19 in coverage doling out a "buy" or better rating. CRZO's consensus 12-month price target sits up at $18.94, a nearly 50% premium to its current price.
In the options pits, the security's Schaeffer’s put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.42 sits in the 100th percentile of its annual range, showing a much bigger-than-usual put-skew among near-term traders. Plus, CRZO sports a SVI of 54% that ranks in the low 19th annual percentile, revealing subdued volatility expectations at the moment.