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2020 Golden Globe instant predictions: Netflix is poised to make history

Kevin Polowy
Senior Correspondent, Yahoo Entertainment
Ray Romano, Al Pacino and Robert De Niro in The Irishman. (Photo: Netflix)

The nominations for the 2020 Golden Globe Awards were announced at the crack of dawn Pacific Standard Time Monday, with Netflix dominating the ballot.

The streaming giant picked up at total of 34 noms, with exactly half of those in the film categories. Noah Baumbach's Marriage Story led all movies with six nominations although it's likely Martin Scorsese's $159 million, 209-minute The Irishman wins the streaming service major gold come Jan. 6 and positions Netflix for a historic run at Oscar glory.

Check out all instant predictions for the major movie categories below.

Best Picture Drama

There were a couple minor surprises in the Globes's top film category, with Todd Phillips's Joker becoming the second comic book movie in as many years to make the cut (after last year's groundbreaking Black Panther nod) and Netflix's comedic The Two Popes beating out more straightforward dramas like Little Women, Ford v Ferrari and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Yet, the bigger story here is that Netflix accounts for 60 percent of the contenders, with The Irishman and Marriage Story also in the running. It’s the former, Martin Scorsese's much-hyped mob story, that has emerged as award season's early overall favorite.

Nominees:
1917
The Irishman
Joker
Marriage Story
The Two Popes

Insta-prediction: The Irishman

Best Picture Musical or Comedy

Netflix also is represented here, courtesy of the Eddie Murphy comeback vehicle Dolemite Is My Name. The well-reviewed biopic is joined in this race by Toronto International Film Festival winner Jojo Rabbit, Rian Johnson's hilarious whodunit Knives Out (which has emerged as a viable awards contender after also notching an AFI mention last week) and the summer hits Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Rocketman. Not making the cut: Universal's splashy Broadway adaptation Cats, which screened early for the HFPA but only earned a nod for Best Original Song (yes, they found a way to get Taylor Swift to the Globes). After The Irishman, Quentin Tarantino's Hollywood is considered the second biggest threat in the Oscar race at this point.

Nominees:

Dolemite Is My Name
Jojo Rabbit
Knives Out
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

Insta-prediction: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Director

The aforementioned top dogs The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood will go head-to-head here, with Scorsese and Tarantino joined by Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) and Sam Mendes (1917) and, in a bit of a surprise, Joker helmer Todd Phillips. Unfortunately, it's another male-only race for the fifth straight year after Greta Gerwig (Little Women) and Marielle Heller (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood) were left in the cold. While Mendes could be a serious threat for the technical virtuosity he displays in the extended shots of the World War I epic 1917, odds are it's going to master craftsman Scorsese.

Nominees:

Bong Joon HoParasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Insta-prediction: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Best Actress Drama

Little Women will be represented in Best Actress (as well as Best Original Score, its only two nominations), where 25-year-old Saoirse Ronan claimed her fourth Golden Globe nomination in her young career (she won Best Actress Musical or Comedy two years ago for Gerwig's Lady Bird). But she faces stiff competition from the likes of Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Charlize Theron (Bombshell) and Renée Zellweger (Judy), with Zellweger considered to be the odds-on favorite for the Globe (and Oscar) for her dazzling portrayal of showbiz great Judy Garland.

Nominees:

Cynthia ErivoHarriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse RonanLittle Women
Charlize TheronBombshell
Renée ZellwegerJudy

Insta-prediction: Renée Zellweger, Judy

Best Actor Drama

While The Irishman received five film nominations, its lead actor Robert De Niro was snubbed (it is possible the press-shy screen great may have been penalized for a lack of personal campaigning). De Niro's demotion opened up the door for Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari) to join the race (and maybe get a boost for the ultra-competitive Oscar countdown, despite the fact he should be gunning for Best Supporting Actor). Adam Driver (Marriage Story) and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) are considered the heavy favorites here, though, and given the HFPA's surprising affinity for Joker, Phoenix has the early leg up.

Nominees:

Christian BaleFord v Ferrari
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Insta-prediction: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Best Actress Musical or Comedy

Because the Golden Globes dedicate separate categories to musical/comedy, the result can be surprising (head-scratching?); here we see two prime examples with the nominations of Cate Blanchett (for the otherwise critically drubbed Where'd You Go Bernadette?) and Emma Thompson (for the underperforming Late Night). But the category also is generating some deserving publicity for otherwise unlikely Oscar contenders like Ana de Armas (Knives Out) and Beanie Feldstein (Booksmart). Finally, there’s possible Oscar contender Awkwafina, who becomes the instant favorite for what's actually a dramatic turn in The Farewell.

Nominees:

Ana de Armas, Knives Out
Cate Blanchett, Where'd You Go Bernadette?
Beanie FeldsteinBooksmart
Emma ThompsonLate Night
AwkwafinaThe Farewell

Insta-prediction: Awkwafina, The Farewell

Best Actor Musical or Comedy

Daniel Craig (who scored his very first Golden Globe nomination for Knives Out) and young Jojo Rabbit breakout Roman Griffin Davis (same) go into the "just happy to be nominated" camp. They're joined by three viable Oscar contenders in Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Taron Egerton (Rocketman) and Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name). Egerton deserves to follow in the steps of Rami Malek, who won a Globe last year in the drama category as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, for playing Elton. But the HFPA favorite DiCaprio, who has now been nominated 12 times by the group, will most likely net his fourth trophy.

Nominees:

Daniel Craig, Knives Out
Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

Insta-prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Lopez is one step closer to hustling an Oscar nomination after her first Golden Globe nomination in more than 20 years for Hustlers (her first and only previous nod came in 1997 for Selena). Annette Bening (The Report, which has been earning her awards buzz since last January) and Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell, which just premiered) prove it is never too early or too late to join the race. And Bombshell's Margot Robbie edged out Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's Margot Robbie. But it's likely Laura Dern will win the case for her scene-stealing turn as a divorce lawyer in Marriage Story.

Nominees:
Kathy BatesRichard Jewell
Annette BeningThe Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Insta-prediction: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Best Supporting Actor

While Robert De Niro was left out of the lead-acting race, The Irishman ensemble is still well represented as Al Pacino and Joe Pesci battle against one another in this category. Tom Hanks landed his 10th Golden Globe nomination for his delightful turn as Mister Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (the film's only nod from the HFPA). But it's likely Brad Pitt will join his Hollywood buddy Leo on the winner's block, which would mark the 55-year-old's first Globe win since 1995's Twelve Monkeys.

Nominees:
Tom HanksA Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Insta-prediction: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Animated Feature

The HFPA has weighed in on the debate over whether Jon Favreau’s CGI remix of The Lion King is a live-action or animated feature, giving the film an unexpected nomination among more traditional Pixar, Disney and DreamWorks fare: Toy Story 4, Frozen 2 and How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, respectively. They're joined by Laika's box-office misfire Missing Link, which eclipsed the Netflix holiday play Klaus for the final slot. Expect Toy Story 4 to follow in the steps of Part 3 and net Pixar an eighth win over the 14 years this category has existed.

Nominees:
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
The Lion King
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Insta-prediction: Toy Story 4

The 2020 Golden Globe Awards, hosted by Ricky Gervais, will air live on NBC Sunday, Jan. 5 beginning at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET.

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