As Congress considers steps to prevent gun violence, the controversial assault weapons ban faces an uncertain fate in the Senate, amid growing speculation that the bill will not have enough support to get through the Democratic-held chamber.
Based on past records, we can predict that just a handful of Senators will decide whether the new ban lives or dies.
Forty Republican Senators recieved an "A" rating from the NRA, and 36 Democrats have recieved an F rating from the NRA.
This leaves just 24 Senators who have deviated from their party's strongest position on gun control — enough to swing a vote in either direction. This group includes any Republican who didn’t get at least an A rating from the NRA, and any Democrat who didn’t get an F rating.
The Sunlight Foundation investigated which members would be most likely to support gun control issue by looking into campaign contributions, density of gun shops in the home state and margin of party victory.
According to Sunlight, the higher the score, the more likely that person is to support gun control in a vote:
Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO) 10
Sen. Mark Steven Kirk (R-IL) 10
Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) 9.12
Sen. Mary L. Landrieu (D-LA) 8.71
Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) 8.5
Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) 8.35
Sen. John D. Rockefeller IV (D-WV) 7.65
Sen. Bernard Sanders (I-VT) 7.64
Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) 7
Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) 6.99
Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) 6.86
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) 6.59
Sen. Angus King (I-ME) 6.38
Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-VT) 6.34
Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) 5.95
Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) 5.82
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) 5.68
Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) 5.02
Sen. Daniel Coats (R-IN) 4.78
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) 4.1
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) 3.71
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) 3.55
Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-WV) 2.93
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 1.03
Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) 0
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 0
On any gun vote, if 10 or more of this group vote against gun control, the measure fails. Likewise, if 14 or more vote in favor of gun control, it will pass.
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