The 30-yr Treasury bond tends to bottom sometime during Q2, typically around the time the stock market reaches its highs, and then enjoys a solid run of strength into Q3 and beyond in some years. Note seasonal strength shaded in yellow in chart above. Bonds are also a relatively safe place to park capital during the “Worst Six Months” of the year, May through October.
By going long, the September 30-year Treasury bond on or about April 27, and exiting the position on or about August 21, we discovered in the last 39 years a respectable 69.2% success rate. This trade’s track record over the last 28 years (shaded in grey in table below) is even better with 21 gains and a success rate of 75.0%.