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40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis

·9 min read
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Shutterstock.com

The lessons of the 2008 housing crisis are a living memory, and the effects of the recession of that era still are being felt. Although today’s housing market is largely hot, experts are bracing for a wave of evictions triggered by pandemic-related disruptions. That, they fear, could be the catalyst for a different kind of housing crisis that could rival even the dreariest days of the Great Recession.

Some American cities are much more vulnerable to a housing downturn than others, according to a new study from GOBankingRates.

See: 50 Neighborhoods Where Home Prices Are Going Through the Roof
Be Aware: 10 Signs You Should Not Buy a Home Right Now

Using data from sources that include the U.S. Census Bureau, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the 2019 American Community Survey and RealtyTrac, GOBankingRates identified the 40 cities most at risk for experiencing a widespread housing crisis. The study examined factors such as mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures, and homeowner and rental vacancy rates.

All 40 are among the 200 largest cities in the country, but they aren't spread out equally across the nation. States such as Texas, for example, are disproportionately represented with seven cities on the list. California, on the other hand, doesn’t have a single entry despite a population of nearly 40 million and some of the most expensive housing markets in America.

Last updated: Jan. 25, 2021

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Hartford, Connecticut

  • Total housing units: 57,267

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,758 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.7%

Read: What Homes Will Be Worth in Your State by the End of 2021

Ultima_Gaina / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Ultima_Gaina / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

  • Total housing units: 158,561

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,438 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.5%

Find Out: 25 Cities Where the Middle Class Is Thriving

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Shutterstock.com

Hampton, Virginia

  • Total housing units: 60,130

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,598 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.3%

See: States Where It’s Easiest To Go From Middle Class to Upper Class

Freer / Shutterstock.com
Freer / Shutterstock.com

Clearwater, Florida

  • Total housing units: 60,504

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,321 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%

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Trong Nguyen / Shutterstock.com
Trong Nguyen / Shutterstock.com

Corpus Christi, Texas

  • Total housing units: 134,604

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,732 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.4%

Read: 17 Biggest Budgeting Mistakes You’re Making

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Newark, New Jersey

  • Total housing units: 113,623

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,226 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.6%

Check Out: Best Cities To Retire on a Budget of $1,500 a Month

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Shutterstock.com

San Antonio, Texas

  • Total housing units: 561,467

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,142 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%

Related: 17 Dumb Home-Buying Mistakes That Hurt Your Wallet

James Havard / Flickr.com
James Havard / Flickr.com

Killeen, Texas

  • Total housing units: 64,280

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,414 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 4.3%

Try: 50 Easy Things You Should Do To Save Money

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Shutterstock.com

Louisville, Kentucky

  • Total housing units: 282,781

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,666 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%

Read: The Upper Class Has Taken Over These 50 Cities

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Jacksonville, Florida

  • Total housing units: 396,542

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,082 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.9%

Read: 25 Tips for Saving Money With Your Spouse

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Winston-Salem, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 108,880

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,662 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.6%

Helpful: 16 Effective Ways To Trick Yourself Into Saving Money

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Miami, Florida

  • Total housing units: 221,040

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,678 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.9%

Learn More: Here’s Exactly How Much Savings You Need To Retire In Your State

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Atlanta, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 253,597

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,425 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.7%

See: Most and Least Expensive States To Build a Home

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Cedar Rapids, Iowa

  • Total housing units: 62,321

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.0%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,704 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%

Find Out: Minimum Salary You Need To Be Happy in Every State

digidreamgrafix / Getty Images/iStockphoto
digidreamgrafix / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Topeka, Kansas

  • Total housing units: 60,013

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 1.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,833 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.8%

Read More: Want To Retire In One of America’s Safest Cities? $1 Million Might Not Get You Far

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Memphis, Tennessee

  • Total housing units: 301,473

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,485 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%

Look: 20 Hidden Sources of Income Lying Around Your House

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Amarillo, Texas

  • Total housing units: 85,889

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.5%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,394 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.4%

Find Out: How Much You Need To Live Comfortably in 50 Major US Cities

SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Birmingham, Alabama

  • Total housing units: 113,421

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,149 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.6%

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DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Norfolk, Virginia

  • Total housing units: 98,476

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.1%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,997 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.9%

Learn: How One Man Saved $1 Million in 5 Years

DenisTangneyJr / iStock.com
DenisTangneyJr / iStock.com

Springfield, Massachusetts

  • Total housing units: 60,454

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 7,336 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.8%

Check Out: 100 Ways To Make Your Money Last Until You’re 100

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Tulsa, Oklahoma

  • Total housing units: 187,906

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,916 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.0%

Read: How Much It Cost To Retire in the Year You Were Born

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Orlando, Florida

  • Total housing units: 138,456

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.1%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,481 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 6.0%

Read: How To Protect Your Retirement Savings During the Pandemic

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

El Paso, Texas

  • Total housing units: 250,077

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 0.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,424 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.4%

Discover: Most Affordable Places To Retire Near You

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Syracuse, New York

  • Total housing units: 71,806

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.2%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 9,575 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 5.2%

Take a Look: These Once-Hot Housing Markets Are Cooling Off

Richard Cavalleri / Shutterstock.com
Richard Cavalleri / Shutterstock.com

Miami Beach, Florida

  • Total housing units: 65,746

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.4%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,175 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 8.7%

Read: 10 Simple Habits of Money-Smart Individuals

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

  • Total housing units: 691,653

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.8%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,675 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.1%

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Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Little Rock, Arkansas

  • Total housing units: 97,530

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.2%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,141 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.1%

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DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Brownsville, Texas

  • Total housing units: 59,943

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 5.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 20,075 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.7%

Watch Out: 15 Retirement Mistakes and Why They’ll Shrink Your Nest Egg

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

Lafayette, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 59,431

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,467 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.4%

See: 10 Signs You’re Not Saving Enough for Retirement

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Shutterstock.com

Mobile, Alabama

  • Total housing units: 92,545

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,799 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.8%

Read: Why It’s Harder To Save For Retirement Today Than 50 Years Ago

f11photo / Shutterstock.com
f11photo / Shutterstock.com

New Orleans, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 192,236

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.4%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,173 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%

More Tips: 20 Ways To Save Money Fast

ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com
ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com

Augusta, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 87,800

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,879 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.3%

Start Cutting Costs: How To Save Money on All Your Monthly Expenses and Bills

sborisov / Getty Images/iStockphoto
sborisov / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Baltimore, Maryland

  • Total housing units: 293,877

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 2.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.0%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 2,163 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.2%

Check Out: Here’s How To Retire Early and Quit the Daily Grind

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Columbus, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 85,251

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.4%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,004 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.0%

Read: 19 Things You’ll Need To Sacrifice Now for a Healthy Retirement

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Shutterstock.com

Shreveport, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 91,088

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.9%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.3%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 3,156 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.1%

Avoid: 35 Retirement Planning Mistakes That Waste Your Money

traveler1116 / Getty Images
traveler1116 / Getty Images

Fayetteville, North Carolina

  • Total housing units: 94,480

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 3.0

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 5,020 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 3.9%

Are High-Yield Savings Accounts Worth It? Here’s Everything You Need To Know

zrfphoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
zrfphoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

  • Total housing units: 104,145

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.5%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.7%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 8,703 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.4%

Take Action: Do These 13 Things To Boost Your Retirement Savings Now

SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Jackson, Mississippi

  • Total housing units: 75,146

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.6%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 4,465 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 2.5%

See: 42 Easy Ways To Save For Retirement

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Macon, Georgia

  • Total housing units: 70,014

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 4.3%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.9%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 6,260 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 1.9%

See: Do You Think the Minimum Wage Should Be $15? Take Our Poll

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Laredo, Texas

  • Total housing units: 80,365

  • % of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent: 8.7%

  • % of mortgages 90+ days delinquent: 1.5%

  • Foreclosure rate: 1 in every 10,322 homes

  • Homeowner vacancy rate %: 0.9%

More From GOBankingRates

Methodology: To find the 40 cities that could be poised for a housing crisis, GOBankingRates looked at the 200 largest cities in terms of total housing units across the following factors: (1) percent of mortgages 30-89 days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (2) percent of mortgages 90-plus days delinquent by MSA as sourced from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; (3) homeowner vacancy rate as sourced from the 2019 American Community Survey; and (4) rental vacancy rate as sourced from the 2019 American Community Survey. These four factors then were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. Factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, and factor (4) was weighted 0.5x. The 100 cities most poised for a housing crisis were moved onto the next round of scoring. These 100 cities then were re-ranked and scored on the four factors above as well as (5) foreclosure rate as sourced from RealtyTrac. These five factors were scored and combined with the highest score indicating the city most likely to be poised for a housing crisis. For this second round of scoring, factors (1) and (2) were weighted 2x, factor (4) was weighted 0.5x, and factor (5) was weighted 1.5x. All data were collected on and are up to date as of Oct. 8, 2020.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 40 Cities That Could Be Poised For a Housing Crisis