Years of soaring home prices have led to 96% of the largest markets in United States having overvalued real estate, according to a new analysis by Moody’s Analytics.
Most of the market now remains overpriced by about 25%.
That could lead to particularly sharp declines should the U.S. fall into a recession, warns Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi in an interview with Fortune. In such a scenario, he predicts national prices could decline by an average of 5%, with overheated markets possibly dropping 15% to 20%.
Here are the five U.S. cities most at risk.
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Boise, Idaho saw an enormous boost in housing prices during the pandemic. The country’s most overpriced city became a hotspot for technology workers relocating from expensive California cities after pandemic shutdowns. Now, Boise is 73% overvalued, according to Moody’s.
The city’s population grew by 3.3% from July 202 to July 2021 alone — the six highest among all U.S. metro areas.
The city was listed as the No.1 to live by Livability back in 2019, giving residents access to both the wilderness and a safe, affordable city. This helped fuel the increase of young homebuyers once the pandemic hit with the increase in remote work.
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Things have become heated in Colorado Springs, where a new clause was introduced to protect homebuyers. The clause prohibits exceeding prices past a certain point as bidding wars continue to fuel the market.
The city has been undergoing a 10-year home price increase, due partly to its proximity to Denver, but at a lower cost. The median price of a home hit $450,000 in April, a 14.5% increase from 2021.
Las Vegas, Nevada
While Las Vegas prices exploded during the pandemic, there may be a slight shift coming. The average cost of a home hit a new record in May at $482,000.
However, home sales started to drop, down 8.8% year-over-year. The cost of a home in Las Vegas is now triple what it was just a decade ago, fuelled by the last housing crash.
The number of new residents continues to rise in Phoenix, and with fewer homes available that means higher housing prices.
Yet as with Las Vegas, newly built homes along with applications for mortgages seem to be falling, perhaps signaling perhaps a peak soon.
Phoenix actually was the leader in country-wide home price increases until recently. Still, there remains a healthy housing market that may take longer to slow compared to other cities.
Coeur D’Alene, Idaho
Idaho makes the list twice as the entire state sees more and more new residents, pushing prices higher.
Coeur D’Alene saw an inventory explosion during the pandemic, with the supply of inventory up 112% year over year in May of 2022. Buyers paid a 55.9% premium, according to Moody’s. That’s compared to just 19.6% back in 2019.
And while home prices have increased, it seems that Idaho remains a relatively affordable, and thus desirable, place to live.
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