The stock market had a big bounce on Tuesday and started off higher on Wednesday as well. By lunchtime though, investors were staring at ~1% losses across the board, although they have since erased about half of those losses. What’s going on out there? We remain in a messy, choppy market after the indices’ big rally off the December lows. Let’s look at what’s moving in the market today and get an idea of what top stock trades to watch going through the rest of this week.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #1: Russell 2000 ETF
Let’s talk about the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM). This name has been a leader over the past few quarters, both on the upside and the downside. Earlier this month, the IWM put in a lower high from the month prior and failed to hold its 200-day moving average.
It’s now below the 50-day and 20-day moving averages as well. The setup is…not great. But that said, it’s not like the rally is completely giving way. There are some negative catalysts working against stocks — like fears of a global recession — but the Fed remains patient and earnings aren’t getting sacked.
That, to me, limits our downside. However, that does not mean we’re immune to a pullback and/or consolidation. Bulls may want to be a bit more cautious, at least until the IWM can recapture the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. I’m not a huge fan of the lower highs and lower lows, but that concern is only that, as long as we’re over $145.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #2: Cronos Group
So far, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement for the 52-week range is holding up as support, but CRON is far from out of the woods. If this level fails, there could certainly be more downside.
The prior breakout is down near $14 to $15, while the 50% retracement is at $15.06. So should CRON take out Wednesday’s lows, this could be its destination down the road. Dip buyers need to use caution, especially with CRON below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
A slightly higher open on Thursday followed by a decline that takes out Wednesday’s low could give bears a low-risk short-term shorting opportunity.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #3: Paychex
Shares of Paychex (NYSE:PAYX) started off higher on the day, but faded from its opening gains after the company beat on earnings and reported in-line revenue results. PAYX stock is now down almost 2% on the day.
The report wasn’t necessarily bad, but perhaps it wasn’t enough to sustain new highs. Worth noting though, PAYX did make new 52-week highs in the session. That said, it’s near channel resistance on the weekly chart.
At the very least, bulls may wait for a pullback into the 20-week or 50-week moving averages. However, waiting for a potential test of the 100-week moving average and/or channel support has proven to be much more prudent. It also allows bulls to enter into a less risky setup should it get there. Patience may be key here with PAYX.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #4: Southwest
Shares of Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) are rallying despite the company cutting its capacity guidance. A stock rallying on bad news is a good sign for a possible bottom.
In either case, bulls have a reasonable setup. So far, the stock is holding above the 200-week moving average. Should the stock lose this level the recent lows near $45, it will tumble into no man’s land. $45 is a notable multi-year level, but there’s potential uptrend support (purple line) near this level as well.
Aggressive bulls can go long on a weekly close over the 200-week moving average. Conservative bulls may want to wait for a potential pullback. If it materializes, an entry near $45 sets up a low-risk long.
Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #5: The Trade Desk
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) has been a growth monster this year, but shares have been getting whacked over the past few sessions. Short-term uptrend support (blue line) didn’t hold as support, nor did the 20-day moving average.
That leaves the post-earnings open and the 50-day moving average near $170 on the table. Should these levels fail to hold, growth investors sure would love to snap this name up between $150 and $160.
If you like mid cap growth stocks, TTD should surely be on your list. But keep in mind, it’s a volatile one, so investors need a strong stomach.
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