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AAON, Inc. Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

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AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAON) last week reported its latest full-year results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$469m and statutory earnings per share of US$1.03 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that AAON is executing in line with expectations. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for AAON

NasdaqGS:AAON Past and Future Earnings, February 29th 2020
NasdaqGS:AAON Past and Future Earnings, February 29th 2020

After the latest results, the dual analysts covering AAON are now predicting revenues of US$518.0m in 2020. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 10% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to surge 45% to US$1.50. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of US$523.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.32 in 2020. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a nice gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$44.50, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation.

Further, we can compare these estimates to past performance, and see how AAON forecasts compare to the wider market's forecast performance. It's clear from the latest estimates that AAON's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with forecast 10% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.1%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same market, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.4% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, analysts also expect AAON to grow faster than the wider market.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that the consensus upgraded its earnings per share estimates, showing a clear improvement in sentiment around AAON's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data does suggest that AAON's revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for AAON going out as far as 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of AAON's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.