AbbVie ABBV will report first-quarter 2023 results on Apr 27, before market open. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.69%.
This large drugmaker’s performance has been impressive, with its earnings beating estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 1.66%, on average.
AbbVie’s shares have inched up 0.5% so far this year compared with the industry’s 3.3% growth.
Factors to Consider
AbbVie’s top line is expected to have been driven by sales of new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which registered strong growth in the past few quarters. This trend is expected to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Our model estimates for the sales of Rinvoq and Skyrizi in the first quarter are pegged at $699 million and $1.43 billion, respectively.
Growth in Rinvoq and Skyrizi sales is expected to partially make up for the fall in the flagship drug Humira’s sales. The drug recently lost exclusivity in the United States following the launch of Amgen’s Amjevita, the first U.S. biosimilar to Humira. Many other companies have also developed their own Humira biosimilars, which are expected to be launched at different times throughout this year. Novartis’ generic arm Sandoz is expected to launch its Humira biosimilar Hyrimoz later this July. The impact of these biosimilars on Humira sales will be seen in subsequent quarters. The drug has already lost the exclusivity in ex-U.S. territories following the launch of generics in 2018.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Humira are pegged at $3.44 billion and $3.45 billion, respectively.
AbbVie markets Imbruvica in partnership with Johnson & Johnson JNJ and Venclexta in partnership with Roche RHHBY. We expect JNJ-partnered Imbruvica sales to decline due to novel oral therapies hurting the drug’s sales, while Roche-partnered Venclexta sales are likely to rise as new patient starts are expected to improve. Our model estimates for the J&J-partnered drug are pegged at $938 million while our estimates for the Roche-partnered drug stand at $508 million.
In the aesthetics franchise, we expect Botox and Juvederm sales to fall as economic pressure is impacting consumers' discretionary spending. ABBV’s suspension of its aesthetics business operations in Russia also affected the company’s sales, as Russia is a key market for fillers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for aesthetics product sales is pegged at $1.21 billion and $1.25 billion, respectively.
Sales of the neuroscience franchise have shown strong growth in recent quarters, with additional sales generated by the recently-approved migraine drugs — Ubrelvy and Qulipta. The trend is expected to have continued for the franchise in the soon-to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate suggest neuroscience product sales at $1.52 billion and $1.55 billion, respectively.
Investor are likely to forward questions regarding updates on new product launches.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AbbVie this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here, as you will see below. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: AbbVie has an Earnings ESP of -1.13% as the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.44 per share is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.46.
Zacks Rank: AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stock to Consider
Here is a large drug stock that has the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around:
Novo Nordisk NVO has an Earnings ESP of +10.71% and a Zacks Rank #1.
Novo Nordisk’s stock has surged 27.6% in the year-to-date period. Novo Nordisk beat earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, while missing the mark on one occasion. Novo Nordisk has delivered an earnings surprise of 3.00%, on average. The company will report its first-quarter results on May 4, before the opening bell.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report