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Acadia (ACAD) Down 12% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

Zacks Equity Research
·3 mins read

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD). Shares have lost about 12% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Acadia due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

ACADIA Beat Earnings Estimates in Q2, Nuplazid Drives Sales

ACADIA reported second-quarter 2020 loss of 27 cents per share, narrower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 44 cents as well as the year-ago loss of 38 cents.

Total revenues comprising net sales of the company’s sole marketed drug Nuplazid soared 32% year over year to $110.1 million in the second quarter. The top line also surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $106 million.

Quarter in Detail

Sales of Nuplazid grew steadily both year over year and sequentially. driven by a strong commercial execution. The drug saw a solid uptake ever since its launch in 2016.

Research and development (R&D) expenses were $64.3 million in the quarter, down 4.4% from the year-ago period owing to lower development costs of Nuplazid for additional indications.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose 23.9% year over year to $84.3 million due to increased advertising and promotional costs, and higher personnel costs.

As of Jun 30, 2020, ACADIA had cash, cash equivalents and investments worth $658.6 million compared with $651.4 million as of Mar 31, 2020.

2020 Guidance

Owing to the strong adoption of Nuplazid, ACADIA raised the lower end of its net sales guidance for the drug. The company now expects total revenues in the range of $430-$450 million for the full year, tightened from the previous guidance of $420-$450 million.

Meanwhile, the R&D expenses are now expected within $265-$280 million, down from the previous guided range of $270-$285 million. SG&A expenses are projected in the band of $400-$420 million, lower than the earlier forecast of $425-$445 million

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed an upward trend in estimates revision. The consensus estimate has shifted 16.18% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Acadia has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Acadia has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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